Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f8b47709f16bb24fbbc75da052e76924d020b61d6d914969a533f0814285bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 47c | 17,325$8,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,117.48 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2403…0d6ebacked Yes | 62c | 6,147$3,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,816.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 38c | 5,726$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,531.48 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 55c | 5,708$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…9cf1backed No | 70c | 5,390$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf3…55a7backed Yes | 30c | 5,358$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 58c | 4,115$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.92 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,871$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.64 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 64c | 3,757$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,657$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.74 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 61c | 3,410$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…7d85backed No | 51c | 3,380$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 78c | 3,332$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.98 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 68c | 2,812$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 22c | 2,805$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…5424backed No | 79c | 2,394$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 27c | 2,371$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.77 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed No | 67c | 2,288$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 54c | 2,224$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…35a9backed No | 32c | 2,120$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…17bdbacked Yes | 46c | 2,103$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…bea3backed Yes | 35c | 2,055$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 41c | 2,039$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.34 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 37c | 2,023$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.46 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 48c | 1,981$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 1,908$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.72 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 44c | 1,896$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,748$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.77 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 67c | 1,691$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.46 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed No | 75c | 1,666$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…04e0backed Yes | 61c | 1,652$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 63c | 1,624$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed Yes | 39c | 1,624$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.42 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,610$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 57c | 1,608$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.37 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 1,559$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.28 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 65c | 1,529$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,491$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,448$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…2817backed Yes | 33c | 1,445$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 6c | 1,403$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes | 36c | 1,382$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 25c | 1,374$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.41 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…b727backed No | 80c | 1,317$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…8887backed Yes | 62c | 1,303$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 36c | 1,200$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 61c | 1,186$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.55 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed No | 70c | 1,170$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,105$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 34c | 1,100$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,093$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 50c | 1,044$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 34c | 1,025$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.04 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…6bc9backed Yes | 36c | 950.86$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 928.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 65c | 899.99$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 5c | 888.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…4f0bbacked Yes | 37c | 846.71$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…a292backed Yes | 38c | 842.06$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 56c | 817.3$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…f5adbacked No | 74c | 806.75$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…c4ccbacked Yes | 24c | 803.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…19bcbacked No | 78c | 801.5$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 70c | 773.07$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 9c | 752.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…e536backed No | 41c | 725.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…2c00backed Yes | 48c | 714.19$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 47c | 691.87$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 42c | 690.38$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…728cbacked Yes | 29c | 671.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 33c | 666$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 664.85$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.55 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 69cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 57c | 657.65$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.86 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 35c | 649.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 69c | 636.99$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 17c | 604$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 35c | 600.03$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 599.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…93ccbacked Yes | 26c | 549.78$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 521.57$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.44 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 514.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 38c | 497.14$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.09 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 37c | 489.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…0c53backed No | 71c | 487.97$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9535…a161backed Yes | 31c | 480.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d28…ad63backed Yes | 46c | 477.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ce…f55cbacked Yes | 34c | 434.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd006…4a27backed Yes | 49c | 422$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed Yes | 48c | 419.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…107cbacked No | 49c | 417.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…4693backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…df89backed Yes | 80c | 400$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?this page
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.