Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60632b29d98b6c899c62404962576d0ae84bd81d1270e03705164987bf3776e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 15c | 12,991$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 7c | 12,550$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.57 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed Yes | 31c | 11,536$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 65c | 4,802$3,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,409$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 76c | 4,225$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,560$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb52…51f0backed Yes | 6c | 2,454$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 78c | 1,928$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.38 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,173$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 80c | 945.13$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.97 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…b4e9backed Yes | 1c | 875.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…3352backed Yes | 3c | 789.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…57d5backed No | 68c | 670.1$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 11c | 593.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 556.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 79c | 554.08$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 9c | 527.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…332ebacked Yes | 5c | 419.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 5c | 391$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…9ccdbacked Yes | 13c | 373$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed Yes | 13c | 323$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 16c | 309.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 74c | 296.02$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…56a2backed No | 66c | 291$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…0267backed No | 79c | 279.44$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 69c | 255.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 244.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 12c | 244.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 243.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 26c | 241.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 235.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 29c | 211$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 23c | 169$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed Yes | 13c | 158.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…d499backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 30c | 132.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c184backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…4439backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…d02cbacked Yes | 32c | 117.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 100.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcf…1bdebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 29c | 98.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked No | 68c | 78.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…43e0backed No | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9f34backed Yes | 27c | 60.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…e45abacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…992ebacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…b82cbacked No | 74c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.