Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeecef3b9640ef4c723f4a54f787796aaec56801c3fc3297e163fb01d36b48e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $439,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $428,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 62c | 27,843$17,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,349.45 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…8921backed No | 65c | 26,875$17,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,406.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 26,855$9,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,399.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 54c | 25,460$13,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,639.88 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 47c | 22,022$10,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,258 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 52c | 21,203$11,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,164.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 14c | 18,869$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,557.09 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked Yes | 61c | 15,023$9,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,164.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 65c | 14,945$9,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,768.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 43c | 14,410$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,196.55 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 28c | 14,357$4,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065.64 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes | 15c | 12,087$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.9 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 10,019$3,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,617.1 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 57c | 8,702$4,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,744.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 77c | 8,420$6,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 45c | 7,809$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.72 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 77c | 7,132$5,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 6,418$3,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.12 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 51c | 6,361$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,116.17 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 40c | 5,718$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 23c | 5,627$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 46c | 5,374$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.94 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 19c | 5,109$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 64c | 4,739$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.58 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 39c | 4,286$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.91 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…9cf1backed No | 70c | 4,176$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 40c | 3,976$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 37c | 3,151$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 41c | 3,044$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 50c | 2,997$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 2,972$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +2,714.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…7246backed Yes | 58c | 2,743$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 20c | 2,515$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 48c | 2,485$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…3352backed Yes | 57c | 2,465$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 74c | 2,361$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.79 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 48c | 2,272$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 39c | 2,235$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 44c | 2,063$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.31 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,007$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 54c | 2,000$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 48c | 1,968$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 54c | 1,952$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 54c | 1,910$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.92 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 43c | 1,862$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.64 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 44c | 1,530$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…198fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,437$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 27c | 1,373$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +65%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 72c | 1,345$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.65 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 52c | 1,267$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…e4fbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,246$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…8c9bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,238$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…4f0bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,188$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 18c | 1,180$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…5e12backed Yes | 43c | 1,167$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 62c | 1,136$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,076$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 63c | 1,061$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.54 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 62c | 1,035$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.97 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 54c | 1,011$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 30c | 1,005$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…05d3backed Yes | 42c | 999.95$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…327ebacked Yes | 5c | 973.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 62c | 901.38$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 57c | 890.82$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.34 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…440fbacked No | 43c | 878$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 48c | 845.89$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a743backed Yes | 60c | 818.26$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 42c | 817.28$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776a…b93abacked No | 38c | 794.97$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…df89backed Yes | 44c | 771$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…107cbacked No | 53c | 722.9$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 34c | 721$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 29c | 700$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 40c | 696.4$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…a24ebacked Yes | 45c | 680$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 30c | 679.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 43c | 665.89$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 54c | 665.88$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 42c | 660.3$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 18c | 651.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 41c | 637.52$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.97 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…77f1backed Yes | 58c | 625$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…c0a9backed No | 42c | 616$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 600.09$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.43 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…8e10backed Yes | 58c | 577$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 48c | 544.8$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6979…2127backed No | 55c | 542.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 39c | 514.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.71 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…6708backed Yes | 58c | 514.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 500.08$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…c521backed No | 79c | 486.22$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed No | 68c | 478.56$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219d…145bbacked Yes | 21c | 451$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 43c | 444.26$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 48c | 423.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.69 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…1542backed Yes | 62c | 402$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.