TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,204,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,445,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,204,604 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes0c226,767$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.790%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Yes1c175,536$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes1c124,291$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.793020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d19…9a88backed Yes1c107,508$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes1c101,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.723228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57dc…a126backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a42…282fbacked Yes0c96,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes0c92,462$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.512412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7e…158dbacked Yes0c90,600$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c81,237$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.583859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fa…e14cbacked Yes1c68,691$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+241.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0593…62febacked Yes1c60,000$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x433b…58debacked Yes2c53,585$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.74616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5982…dfbebacked Yes1c53,236$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa7eb…a09bbacked Yes1c53,109$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb1…0644backed Yes8c52,145$3,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,946.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936b…3d64backed Yes0c52,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x465a…1853backed Yes0c47,164$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a1…fe8bbacked Yes1c46,975$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes0c41,516$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.112025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f9…aa46backed Yes1c40,127$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes2c34,664$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.512321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes0c31,425$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.55128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes0c30,500$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1384047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b26…488bbacked Yes1c30,297$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.911127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+64.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa3…e79cbacked Yes0c30,152$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf223…f49cbacked Yes0c30,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d7…1b55backed Yes1c27,610$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.38185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed Yes1c27,512$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.951118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked Yes1c27,198$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.92218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…937abacked Yes1c27,143$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b50…1657backed Yes1c26,818$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.970%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes0c25,870$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes8c25,538$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.38615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebf7…0741backed Yes0c25,050$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Yes1c24,395$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3740%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9bb…bdb9backed Yes1c24,092$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42db…e3e0backed Yes5c24,051$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes0c23,134$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-59.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d72…3723backed Yes1c23,046$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Yes2c21,229$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.98616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes7c21,154$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.254522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes0c20,250$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes5c20,090$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.613920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa22…c275backed Yes0c20,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b88…5e2ebacked Yes3c19,395$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes4c18,011$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.852222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes4c17,907$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe768…8efabacked Yes0c17,894$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes6c17,839$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.1421022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes5c16,433$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.4613145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes1c16,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes0c15,177$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b3…9d7dbacked Yes1c13,680$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15a…35d9backed Yes1c13,329$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…5700backed Yes1c12,731$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…8f85backed Yes1c12,641$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbfe…5087backed Yes1c12,391$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked Yes4c11,712$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.451216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b61…d036backed Yes1c11,128$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes7c10,888$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.393023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd83…28f1backed Yes1c10,858$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9939…c0efbacked Yes0c10,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2013…0091backed Yes7c10,552$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8cd…5cc2backed Yes1c10,194$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes1c10,179$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.892814.3%4 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-76.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7ad3…8297backed Yes1c10,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes4c9,999$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe555…782fbacked Yes1c9,892$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes22c9,886$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a49…667ebacked Yes1c9,681$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf93…7a5fbacked Yes45c9,144$4,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,109.891040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f13…5b36backed Yes1c8,860$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a5…4032backed Yes0c8,746$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes1c8,526$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3d…f421backed Yes1c8,517$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fab…911fbacked Yes1c8,353$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes8c8,000$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.138632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes2c7,757$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c7,624$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.45323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes1c7,500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.463625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x641b…6116backed Yes3c7,371$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423b…cb44backed Yes0c7,063$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.611225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes25c6,849$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.89846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes5c6,231$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.81625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes9c6,162$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.628231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc57d…12b5backed Yes1c6,111$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a0…78c0backed Yes0c6,022$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388d…781abacked Yes1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c6,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c3…3181backed Yes0c6,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…8ef1backed Yes1c5,970$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e64…2190backed Yes1c5,575$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c5,187$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes6c5,165$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.926921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08eb…ee62backed Yes1c5,100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.921533.3%5 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes0c5,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.932015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes9c4,999$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.13135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e48…3e5fbacked Yes4c4,945$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.