Ukraine · resolved market
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374e5afa255856d868887c5462ed62ca1af09a6aceb9c21cf2c934402a8da70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 21c | 4,322$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.87 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 3,417$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 77c | 3,250$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.5 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 32c | 2,114$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.5 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 10c | 2,001$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.51 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 1,900$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed Yes | 31c | 1,613$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…76d9backed No | 75c | 1,574$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed Yes | 11c | 1,133$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 21c | 1,128$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 68c | 937.49$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.08 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 58c | 921.13$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.51 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…e8aebacked Yes | 24c | 631.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 30c | 548.85$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Yes | 20c | 523.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 498.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…4503backed Yes | 32c | 488$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 22c | 447.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 66c | 439.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 402.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…9c11backed No | 69c | 373.09$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e4…25e2backed Yes | 6c | 343.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 31c | 291.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda0a…5eb1backed Yes | 43c | 289.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…39f6backed Yes | 13c | 277.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked No | 74c | 270.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 241.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 28c | 239.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 9c | 232.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…7280backed Yes | 12c | 218.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 183$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 172.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 16c | 160.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…a6f5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 138.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 13c | 121.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 104.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed Yes | 12c | 101.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea4…4345backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 15c | 88.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 15c | 80.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 71c | 73.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed No | 79c | 63.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…ff47backed No | 78c | 59.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 76c | 50.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…9063backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 24c | 42.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…675fbacked No | 75c | 40.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7b…e53cbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…bdfbbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…992cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…555dbacked No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8665…6facbacked No | 55c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…04aebacked No | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…f16cbacked No | 78c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…a81ebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…4cf2backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?this page
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?Yes won
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.