TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,764

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,341 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes16c9,451$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.4624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes19c6,557$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.0612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes12c5,483$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.9425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c5,426$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8725311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes27c3,615$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.8215029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No75c3,340$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8352475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes22c3,308$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.754535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes9c3,300$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes12c3,138$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.463630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes12c3,114$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.5311647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes20c2,490$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.66175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes26c2,354$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.2711050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes12c2,090$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+128.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No79c1,899$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes20c1,550$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.57356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes25c1,504$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.984358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes8c1,300$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10715855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No78c1,277$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9114147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes19c1,200$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2331618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-72.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes11c1,182$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes17c1,157$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.353354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4989…50d1backed No78c1,100$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.655100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes28c1,065$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.82969%20 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed Yes17c1,055$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.269257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed Yes12c1,009$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No77c950.01$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked Yes16c938.25$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.222176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes12c921.13$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes12c833.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c758.89$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c737.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9839429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed Yes19c693.03$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.269360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked No80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes25c607.88$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes12c576.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.471729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes17c514.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes26c499.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes10c499.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes11c483.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.114121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes4c449.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…9b80backed Yes26c433.19$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.721931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No74c400$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8911542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4c…89afbacked Yes26c399.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.991060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcd…2c60backed No74c360.77$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No74c310.88$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8310357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c298.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No77c273$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.257949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes6c270.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.986622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4522…20c5backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked No74c238.1$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.12222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No78c222$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.843683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x18ae…aa14backed No76c215.33$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes24c203$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.098652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5f…9d60backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ee…cf38backed No80c190.75$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9665…206fbacked No78c185.19$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.743100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes13c179.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.225757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No80c166$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes15c153.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2413622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c153$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.655327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…08d5backed No74c140.14$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf445…8184backed No77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…560dbacked Yes15c137.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3bf…1adbbacked No73c136.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…1e34backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No78c135$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5295…2497backed No74c121.62$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e343backed No74c118.45$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.06366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd697…7280backed Yes30c109.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes28c103.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.782853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9613…7528backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d2…45b5backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes16c81.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133060%18 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+38.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed No77c81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.631526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee12…fb2abacked Yes18c79.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes26c75.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.713452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f0…f19fbacked No79c72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd042…7198backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc2…8c7fbacked No74c68.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7648…e83fbacked Yes26c66.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.665639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb9…882dbacked No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.18329.4%3 W · 29 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No79c51.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.892272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7b…b99fbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No76c47.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3110343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8f…300cbacked No77c45.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.27966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b2…9063backed No74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c7…7e8abacked No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5b…650fbacked No79c39.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No78c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.052669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.