Ukraine · resolved market
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa4a6e8a26e7b825535a6840c24be1a0841edd7fb795cf607b105c4046b4be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 16c | 9,451$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.46 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 19c | 6,557$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 5,483$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.94 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 5,426$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.87 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 27c | 3,615$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.82 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 3,340$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 22c | 3,308$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.75 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 9c | 3,300$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 12c | 3,138$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.46 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 12c | 3,114$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.53 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,490$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.66 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 26c | 2,354$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.27 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 12c | 2,090$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 79c | 1,899$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 20c | 1,550$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 25c | 1,504$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.98 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 78c | 1,277$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.91 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,200$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,182$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,157$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…50d1backed No | 78c | 1,100$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,065$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 17c | 1,055$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Yes | 12c | 1,009$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 77c | 950.01$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked Yes | 16c | 938.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 12c | 921.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 12c | 833.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 758.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 737.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 19c | 693.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 25c | 607.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 12c | 576.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes | 17c | 514.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 10c | 499.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 483.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 4c | 449.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed Yes | 26c | 433.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 72c | 420$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 400$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked Yes | 26c | 399.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcd…2c60backed No | 74c | 360.77$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 74c | 310.88$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 298.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 77c | 273$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 6c | 270.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked No | 74c | 238.1$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 78c | 222$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…aa14backed No | 76c | 215.33$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed No | 80c | 190.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…206fbacked No | 78c | 185.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 13c | 179.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 166$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 15c | 153.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 153$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…08d5backed No | 74c | 140.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…8184backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 15c | 137.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…1adbbacked No | 73c | 136.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…1e34backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5295…2497backed No | 74c | 121.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…e343backed No | 74c | 118.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…7280backed Yes | 30c | 109.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 28c | 103.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9613…7528backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 16c | 81.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…fb2abacked Yes | 18c | 79.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 26c | 75.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…8c7fbacked No | 74c | 68.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…e83fbacked Yes | 26c | 66.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…882dbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 79c | 51.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…b99fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 76c | 47.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…300cbacked No | 77c | 45.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…9063backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…650fbacked No | 79c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?this page
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?Yes won
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.