Ukraine · resolved market
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d87fbeebddd81ed54bf7c582af2c63d88e2bcc3ebb7dbf661a31b9e6828af5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 71c | 9,313$6,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,663.09 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 51c | 4,910$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.09 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 79c | 4,723$3,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.2 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 9c | 2,537$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.9 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 1,606$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.37 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed Yes | 25c | 1,390$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 52c | 1,152$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.04 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,149$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…1f04backed No | 67c | 1,033$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 1,020$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 11c | 986.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.04 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 42c | 983.41$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.65 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 48c | 848.08$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.98 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 50c | 837.99$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 54c | 803.33$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.04 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 35c | 739.48$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.94 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 26c | 635.13$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.13 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 10c | 549.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 7c | 490.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 23c | 441.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 9c | 418.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 396$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.28 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 12c | 280.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.56 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 10c | 221.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…20a6backed Yes | 35c | 167.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…e222backed Yes | 18c | 154.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +451.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 30c | 151$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 16c | 149.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 138.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed Yes | 13c | 127.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 13c | 126.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 41c | 120.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…d7c3backed Yes | 12c | 117.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 12c | 100.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…4e4bbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2159…ab9abacked Yes | 23c | 87.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 80c | 74.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 49c | 59.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 58.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…4cd4backed Yes | 67c | 36.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?this page
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?No won
- Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.