TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Maduro out in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb4f…0d86backed Yes18c16,893$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+126.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes37c7,683$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951d…22a4backed Yes9c6,520$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes22c6,029$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+196.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes17c5,595$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No79c5,565$4,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.48838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked No71c4,496$3,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fb…ef0abacked Yes11c3,187$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No71c2,674$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No78c2,601$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.7123225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No65c2,524$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.672250%11 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2743…85edbacked Yes6c2,323$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed No70c2,084$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.13560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+151.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No75c2,034$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.517650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes20c1,999$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.772520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes16c1,910$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.519721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No67c1,879$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6246038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No77c1,840$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.392339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4d…a7cebacked Yes6c1,816$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268f…8155backed Yes22c1,804$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c1,586$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed No65c1,520$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.87875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2855…afffbacked No68c1,483$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Yes23c1,438$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.741631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes7c1,408$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.721323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No52c1,300$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,170$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c2…cd0bbacked Yes23c1,124$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+104.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be2…e7a0backed No78c1,013$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d2…9eb7backed No65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No79c942.53$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.461163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed No72c928.22$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.371520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No67c915.22$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.52650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed No59c900$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3672842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed No76c862.8$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed No75c860.96$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.24771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1aa…6816backed Yes6c786.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes18c720.43$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+165.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3d…567ebacked Yes5c689.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed No74c658.15$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+103.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes33c599.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9915230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes13c538.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No73c532.41$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.829050%45 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2365…9406backed Yes5c526.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+209%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked No50c499.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a1…5d25backed Yes23c480$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-43.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked Yes27c474.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes34c438.06$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+70%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x438f…93a2backed Yes11c437.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes35c436.07$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.625317%9 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked Yes34c399.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b45…2b73backed Yes26c367.5$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x628c…83d1backed Yes26c355.69$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1a…d6aebacked Yes26c346.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd1…ee93backed No66c317.78$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26c4…6b1abacked Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+189.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc154…4101backed Yes36c305.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c260.25$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.471,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Yes35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…b473backed Yes43c234.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a7…4cb6backed Yes27c234.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+95.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae65…d7cdbacked Yes26c216.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c8…770dbacked No66c205.93$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No65c202.72$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.954524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3119742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7961…d7ecbacked No67c175.65$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8860…8203backed No77c170.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0ec…c868backed Yes22c136.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b6…2a9ebacked No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…43dcbacked No71c127.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.59366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ab…fe22backed Yes37c127.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes12c124.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes33c104$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No66c101.69$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.572944.8%13 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc395…5c8cbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…3e47backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994f…71edbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1237…de46backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e94…7670backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked No68c93.89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd258…f3d2backed Yes23c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b93…843abacked Yes34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e3…b7eabacked Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes29c84.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.064346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c8…97cdbacked Yes14c77.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d01…6ef4backed Yes27c70.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b06…f4abbacked Yes23c69.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c2…e3eebacked No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a4…555cbacked No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x538d…7a13backed Yes22c61.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+156.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8b…0159backed No76c59.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a0…73f3backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…f3edbacked Yes23c56.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.884427.3%12 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.