TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$263,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes46c38,315$17,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,523.327740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No64c15,662$9,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,710.43839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked Yes36c11,605$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,155.84520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes40c10,039$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.741127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No31c9,409$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,521.873268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No71c8,885$6,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.691384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes6c6,867$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.456634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes14c6,224$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.24156.1%23 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0681…f713backed Yes13c5,590$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes53c4,950$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602.4241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c4,250$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.9920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f77…b4e3backed No59c4,092$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.941050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6401560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes27c3,666$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.844045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes14c3,600$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.1315124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No36c3,595$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.52065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No70c3,325$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes30c3,276$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.631560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes28c3,258$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.836740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed Yes20c3,059$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes59c2,999$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.2915155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes72c2,471$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.398843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No31c2,100$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4462352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No61c1,957$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.776546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes36c1,950$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.556051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2831…c51cbacked Yes67c1,903$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes30c1,847$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9619348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes20c1,780$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.533859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No76c1,711$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.412437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes55c1,577$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.035642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes76c1,529$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.828739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes8c1,442$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.364434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes72c1,385$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No68c1,342$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.24630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5475…07eebacked Yes17c1,323$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes29c1,314$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.318746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes3c1,264$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5416854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x689d…d281backed Yes2c1,254$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes9c1,245$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.285135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes62c1,111$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.8223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No65c1,100$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3884052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes78c1,022$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1726…9fc2backed No32c1,000$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.91070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes36c1,000$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3568444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439a…e4e4backed No75c960.09$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No73c935.51$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.94734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No67c925.21$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.272842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes37c892.27$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4215646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No77c883$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.353548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No44c800$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4483625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes32c775.08$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No70c749.08$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5914819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes16c709.33$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.785234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No70c700$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed No69c682.16$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No30c663.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.1511646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked No54c642.21$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.21533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c615.75$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.161,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes9c614.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.047133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No68c601.4$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4121634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2886131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes37c598.44$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.635756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb56…3fc0backed No47c588.06$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79e5…dcc9backed No77c497.01$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed No64c492.7$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.961136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No77c484.68$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.483737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c470$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6639522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf778…8cf9backed Yes2c445.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-84.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d53…398bbacked No22c443.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+47.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1163253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes16c381.16$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7811940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c376.51$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c364.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c352.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…c45fbacked No80c333$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes45c330.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8117021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked No63c316.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.83030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.81825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes39c276.02$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8214135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0557…f3a5backed Yes11c274.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.161040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No36c257.33$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.72142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes59c227.45$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.443647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b2…d733backed No63c215.28$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f2…a7b7backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681b…bfedbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6112643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No66c187.71$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes35c183$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.558632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No36c180$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7413818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No28c180$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.61612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9593…7411backed Yes74c174.68$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes66c163.48$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.224522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No72c163.43$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.762969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.