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World Politics · resolved market

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,823,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,185,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,823,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 639 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffd…530dbacked No2c92,545$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No10c35,216$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.9436154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes58c30,792$17,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,907.413135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No6c25,599$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.081435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+126%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes47c23,615$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,515.418555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes27c23,346$6,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,957.9913918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No3c23,311$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.833023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes50c22,049$10,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,116.672748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No4c19,753$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.182626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c16,600$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes38c14,242$5,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,898.5126240.1%105 W · 157 L+16.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c13,364$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.984440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes4c13,092$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,537.921275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+210.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes56c10,788$6,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,756.91668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x816e…7257backed Yes14c10,171$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,734.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+136.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No10c8,951$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.1337458%217 W · 157 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed Yes55c8,921$4,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes50c8,701$4,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337.343221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Yes44c8,080$3,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,517.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No28c7,922$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.5510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No63c7,593$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,816.55932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed Yes14c7,352$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,348.072740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No25c7,182$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.267618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes40c7,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,209.5614330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c6,917$3,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.8255334.5%191 W · 362 L-38.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes68c6,778$4,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.556150.8%31 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No62c6,547$4,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.993444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c6,523$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6755351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb5…d5febacked No1c5,857$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa181…ece8backed Yes77c5,775$4,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077e…06d2backed No14c5,610$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.73850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No63c5,579$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No28c5,528$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.817830.3%54 W · 124 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes22c5,407$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,190.573551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x609f…317abacked Yes17c5,198$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,313.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+277.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked No40c5,054$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.981513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-46.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No13c5,036$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.615121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1299…6277backed Yes62c5,030$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes55c4,985$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.324334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes50c4,820$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.396741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85bf…9101backed Yes3c4,726$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,570.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,415.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No3c4,613$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9965…c703backed Yes55c4,485$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes75c4,471$3,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.262564%16 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No8c4,263$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2413748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8658…0d47backed No2c4,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes74c4,150$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.093132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes33c3,990$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.014723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes60c3,852$2,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.345446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c3,771$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61701.8%3 W · 167 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f36…4afebacked Yes3c3,738$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.731100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+2,908%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes49c3,663$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.9815932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No65c3,535$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.224940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee5b…1864backed Yes3c3,496$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,380.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+910.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5669…8366backed Yes39c3,470$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No6c3,447$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8514425%36 W · 108 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No21c3,443$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.133531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No2c3,294$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.078451.2%43 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x230d…b468backed Yes3c3,178$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+1,431.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x598e…b460backed Yes4c3,052$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.871100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,339%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b68…3a36backed Yes3c3,047$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.581100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+2,964.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No3c3,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7522725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed Yes45c2,842$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.891428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes31c2,778$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.443828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed No4c2,778$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16f…08aebacked Yes3c2,764$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+910.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No6c2,717$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.52944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No1c2,706$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670c…d1b4backed No3c2,665$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c2,658$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.3931953.3%170 W · 149 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed Yes67c2,644$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.732433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda80…fdb4backed Yes3c2,633$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,548.741100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,025%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No50c2,622$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.722748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb3d…977cbacked Yes3c2,588$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,415.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc04…4f75backed Yes56c2,587$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.71080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No61c2,575$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.8618728.3%53 W · 134 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes74c2,526$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.2189548.3%432 W · 463 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes66c2,494$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.475437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb358…eb11backed Yes3c2,420$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+573.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce5…b437backed No43c2,400$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes79c2,385$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.493336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e28…af8abacked No3c2,372$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf400…83adbacked Yes4c2,358$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+1,161.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf4…6c7abacked Yes3c2,311$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.431100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+2,841.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked No56c2,300$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2486…016fbacked Yes4c2,296$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+713%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x569c…140dbacked Yes39c2,290$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9993…a6cbbacked Yes4c2,265$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+713%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes31c2,258$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.394330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb3f…17efbacked Yes4c2,222$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,119.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No1c2,202$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.022416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6928…8c29backed Yes4c2,199$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+531.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c2,177$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7213525.2%34 W · 101 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes69c2,060$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.61966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf40…004cbacked Yes42c2,016$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.42728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a4…202fbacked Yes3c2,012$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.591100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+2,841.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08013268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No3c2,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412540%50 W · 75 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe081…f463backed Yes4c1,989$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.451100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,339%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2f…6a61backed Yes25c1,987$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+297.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.