World Politics · resolved market
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61700026c9208cdfaf356fce8de01f1108855d45b27b0d79c0516562d23ee77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $872,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $872,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 125,711$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.46 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 0c | 74,999$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 70,002$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,977$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 0c | 28,943$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 24,616$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 0c | 23,464$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 21,997$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 0c | 21,971$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe5…fe3fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,939$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 14,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,649$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 0c | 11,379$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 0c | 10,717$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 1c | 10,654$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…31fbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,533$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…6b9bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,697$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 1c | 6,638$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0960backed Yes | 1c | 6,277$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…7efcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,512$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…07e7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…f322backed Yes | 1c | 4,843$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2927backed Yes | 1c | 4,818$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…065dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,166$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 1c | 4,016$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 3,677$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,492$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…9f22backed Yes | 1c | 3,010$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36dc…770ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,863$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…d3c9backed Yes | 0c | 2,675$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 2,552$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed Yes | 1c | 2,476$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,329$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…ac43backed Yes | 1c | 2,320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…dbc2backed Yes | 2c | 2,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed Yes | 1c | 2,208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…fb56backed Yes | 1c | 2,193$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f4…f862backed Yes | 1c | 2,124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…99edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,011$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…9684backed Yes | 1c | 1,962$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,832$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…5341backed Yes | 1c | 1,783$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793a…de6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…a007backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…f6b9backed Yes | 2c | 949$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…84d4backed Yes | 2c | 796$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6377…8522backed Yes | 2c | 745$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0730…a73fbacked Yes | 2c | 696$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31da…8664backed Yes | 2c | 687$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…21c7backed Yes | 2c | 655$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…2e58backed Yes | 2c | 615$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…6aadbacked Yes | 2c | 518$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…198bbacked Yes | 2c | 449$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 6c | 178.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?this page
- Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes won
- Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No won
- Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.