TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$793,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,922 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c227,208$495 inLost-$495.122626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3659…0451backed Yes0c99,110$99 inLost-$99.11360%0 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c42,000$84 inLost-$844440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54b…26f5backed Yes1c26,587$219 inLost-$219.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes0c23,323$70 inLost-$69.972114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost-$16326.3%2 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost-$15160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes0c12,531$38 inLost-$37.59140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes1c11,498$115 inLost-$114.986235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c10,769$41 inLost-$41.11234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06f…a3a0backed Yes1c10,700$64 inLost-$64.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7f…56b3backed Yes1c4,712$42 inLost-$41.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes1c4,519$45 inLost-$45.4326139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes0c3,869$14 inLost-$14.483221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fba…92e7backed Yes1c3,330$35 inLost-$35.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes1c3,291$30 inLost-$29.83551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6088…27b4backed Yes1c2,391$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c2,286$11 inLost-$11.211691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ca…f13dbacked Yes1c2,165$28 inLost-$28.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,080$18 inLost-$17.892543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,892$25 inLost-$25.422344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f29…0d9fbacked Yes1c1,862$13 inLost-$12.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462c…53bfbacked Yes1c1,788$13 inLost-$13.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes1c1,769$24 inLost-$23.98825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4846…3a29backed Yes1c1,702$15 inLost-$15.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaae…03cebacked Yes1c1,671$12 inLost-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a93…07ffbacked Yes1c1,650$13 inLost-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f2…58abbacked Yes1c1,603$14 inLost-$14.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes2c1,346$22 inLost-$22.497618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes2c1,253$25 inLost-$251540%6 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+73.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c1,023$10 inLost-$10.391358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd524…2accbacked Yes4c859.55$32 inLost-$31.71030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes2c852.52$16 inLost-$15.827017.1%12 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c793.21$16 inLost-$16.351152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c748.27$15 inLost-$14.67806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c616.75$12 inLost-$12.04803.8%3 W · 77 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a03…a88abacked Yes4c325.5$13 inLost-$12.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe989…4974backed Yes4c257.85$10 inLost-$10.03728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.