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World Politics · resolved market

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$825,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $825,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c152,615$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.352626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-40.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes0c89,910$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.983023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3659…0451backed Yes0c50,311$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.31360%0 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c38,032$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.184440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c32,260$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.521691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes1c28,422$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes0c21,067$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc15c…6549backed Yes1c18,279$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb31…6b02backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419e…2777backed Yes0c12,124$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c11,538$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0913918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes2c8,101$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.77017.1%12 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9807…6569backed Yes2c5,140$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+71.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes1c4,940$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.163221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7b…5485backed Yes3c4,292$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.232740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c3,750$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.252114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes1c3,654$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad7…3171backed Yes3c3,567$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes2c3,541$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.37128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-80.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f37…1303backed Yes4c3,423$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c3,341$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.670%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427b…978cbacked Yes3c3,135$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+713%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…f1aabacked Yes3c3,019$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb62e…004dbacked Yes3c3,001$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eff…69d2backed Yes4c2,919$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9205…383cbacked Yes4c2,900$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…72d4backed Yes3c2,800$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8809…a365backed Yes4c2,718$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes8c2,606$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.451338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,577$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.292543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e5…4588backed Yes3c2,538$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac46…e6d8backed Yes2c2,529$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa28e…b220backed Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x651d…b517backed Yes3c2,287$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb344…5897backed Yes4c2,281$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e76…9e6ebacked Yes4c2,148$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e78bbacked Yes3c1,965$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1697…ed32backed Yes3c1,957$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes1c1,942$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.461947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0481…595dbacked Yes3c1,923$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…5eddbacked Yes3c1,883$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72e9…6743backed Yes2c1,853$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.58850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes1c1,811$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.963531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes1c1,803$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…27e4backed Yes3c1,787$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes1c1,784$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4326139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9acc…9533backed Yes3c1,635$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.451357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,580$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.711,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x683f…27dbbacked Yes3c1,572$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Yes2c1,562$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes2c1,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.823135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2584…2891backed Yes2c1,522$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e25…79c9backed Yes2c1,516$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea7…1a03backed Yes3c1,471$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes1c1,443$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98234.3%1 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3a…f596backed Yes1c1,428$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,409$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.022117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba34…f1e0backed Yes1c1,403$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+77.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa28b…55fabacked Yes7c1,400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes1c1,287$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2512029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79e…920cbacked Yes3c1,269$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes3c1,237$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.877618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf9…2fc2backed Yes10c1,180$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes2c1,176$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.046235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes1c1,111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.225234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes2c1,107$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a43…44cdbacked Yes10c1,097$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…a6f1backed Yes3c1,092$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…e639backed Yes1c1,090$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick14cpaid+165.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb246…41c3backed Yes3c1,049$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+713%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x535c…72e8backed Yes2c1,047$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d7…e149backed Yes3c1,034$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+713%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d2…21bdbacked Yes2c1,025$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13af…9d49backed Yes1c1,003$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes5c999.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532528%7 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbe97…d3dfbacked Yes3c995$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4486…c55ebacked Yes1c988$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes1c982.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd006…5358backed Yes4c974$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa546…fa04backed Yes10c963$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c926.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.192344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes4c925.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9315932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…19bcbacked Yes2c900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…3b63backed Yes3c897$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.12520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+387.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c841.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa12…34cabacked Yes2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes1c776.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.585313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes2c733.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd2…b33cbacked Yes10c691$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd299…b988backed Yes2c687$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+410.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes2c670.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.713551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd428…100abacked Yes10c664$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebaa…0fa8backed Yes2c637$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc006…5430backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd735…92bbbacked Yes2c620.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb934…6cafbacked Yes10c611$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c609.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7524110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.