TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa28e…b220

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Champions League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+42.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.1
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.7
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$38.35
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$419.55
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+215.8%+$341.66
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$84.38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$54.42
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.45
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.74
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.75
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.6
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.65
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+73.9%+$53.13
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+80.5%+$222.98
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+85.7%+$115.37
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$150
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$170
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$462.34
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.1%+$199.46
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+94.4%+$242.85
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.25
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.25
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.32
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.9
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.01
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+366.2%+$1,963.73
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+546.6%+$3,170
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.75
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$597.5
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.45
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.76
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66.25
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+75.4%+$38.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+64.4%+$48.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$84.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kuopion PS vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$23.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$22.59
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.