TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,933 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes1c59,494$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes29c8,639$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No68c8,582$5,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9db…dbd8backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No64c1,647$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.011145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+294.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes33c1,513$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44cf…2211backed Yes34c1,450$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…ca75backed No71c1,446$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c1,333$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0819934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c1,200$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33826237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed No74c1,129$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7230…a3d2backed No74c1,080$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c933$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.911,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7948…9917backed Yes30c920.82$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No62c886.35$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.34148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed No64c881.6$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ec…5bc0backed Yes36c850.64$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked No65c725.45$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b3…2280backed Yes31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes25c667.93$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.754816.7%8 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked No64c621.59$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.11450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No73c567.99$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes35c518.67$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1654057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes37c399.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb78…8818backed No77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No62c363.02$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.126864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ca…a286backed No69c354.09$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed No71c348.46$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.57666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…c5aabacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes24c300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes31c300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f70…ad31backed No70c284.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c273.85$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0617049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d4…bff4backed No75c269.02$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe699…8790backed No69c240$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes33c233$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c231.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1116418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No71c222.34$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+93.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21cd…bf5cbacked Yes31c219.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fea…5685backed No55c218.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes32c218.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-84%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes39c202$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63e…d3afbacked No61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes9c190.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes33c189.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed No66c171.64$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.961250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ea…0a00backed No68c160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6f…a587backed Yes28c142.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes31c127.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa28e…b220backed Yes34c125$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No73c125$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes38c106.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes29c105.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.491338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe04…3c60backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…fa34backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a45…4eecbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+102.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe782…3ea5backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes40c91.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1834…ecc6backed Yes51c88.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e7…5e49backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…fdcfbacked No73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8a…4bc4backed No74c72.71$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes20c71.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61333%1 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick17cpaid-85.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd966…af98backed No75c66.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes27c62.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.158536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3c…8b46backed Yes40c62.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bc…a4cdbacked Yes36c61.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No72c58.34$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.346256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a1…f3dbbacked Yes30c57.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No61c49.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.488239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.723450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes37c44.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3715947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c1…e713backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7796…5da7backed No73c31.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed1…3363backed No64c31.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1811…900cbacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No58c27.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbd30…685bbacked No58c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a7…f75abacked No79c23.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed No72c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed No70c22.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+83%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe876…524abacked No66c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa4…cd4ebacked No67c18.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed No72c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…3ed5backed No75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.