Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63da95665236ce59229b9a9fb829fa50173b1443c97570535b078815ab3c92e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 65c | 17,007$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,006.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 11,886$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.69 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…3eb6backed No | 0c | 10,143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 6c | 4,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed No | 5c | 4,200$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 5c | 3,700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 18c | 3,575$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 16c | 2,475$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…03afbacked No | 1c | 2,345$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 80c | 2,220$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.22 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 2,161$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.49 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…b65ebacked No | 16c | 1,875$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…45e6backed No | 16c | 1,875$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 19c | 1,721$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 12c | 1,580$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 8c | 1,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +11.4wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 34c | 886.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…9561backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 8c | 456.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 39c | 250.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 53c | 232.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 29c | 216.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 28c | 211.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 43c | 210$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…afa7backed Yes | 10c | 175.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 9cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…a2a9backed No | 28c | 157.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…b0b3backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02c…ced9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b51…e49ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 99.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 76c | 79.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 19c | 78.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643a…522abacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbde1…3448backed Yes | 68c | 64.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…c8b0backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…f3a7backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…30d3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…a477backed No | 78c | 14.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 77c | 14.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.