Commodities · resolved market
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf3a4f2bb9b4eaef58467da7217275e14da10bfeb8ce965cef15cf1a7e3eaf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked No | 78c | 6,550$5,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacf…c2a8backed Yes | 10c | 6,494$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…de23backed Yes | 5c | 3,658$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,283$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 23c | 2,726$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,706$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…caf4backed Yes | 8c | 1,878$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…cec1backed Yes | 12c | 1,869$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,721$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…f669backed Yes | 7c | 1,586$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…cb21backed Yes | 16c | 1,550$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 1,523$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 1,431$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 1,404$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,319$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…a1b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,142$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 1,108$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.94 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,083$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 8c | 1,029$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 996.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 65c | 987.74$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.67 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…caf4backed Yes | 7c | 980.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 11c | 752.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…e360backed Yes | 2c | 731.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 7c | 713.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 706.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…78c4backed Yes | 8c | 699.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 61c | 670.75$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 15c | 662.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b08…38bbbacked Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…7e0dbacked No | 79c | 599.99$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 49c | 599.98$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 520.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…4458backed Yes | 3c | 500.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 13c | 493.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…bb28backed Yes | 53c | 483.67$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 24c | 475$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2372backed Yes | 4c | 461.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…c22cbacked No | 77c | 447.99$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 444.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…593abacked Yes | 5c | 406.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…22a8backed Yes | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed No | 13c | 388.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 386.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 13c | 367.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…99cfbacked No | 62c | 349.11$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 323.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…96bebacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…76eabacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…631abacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 79c | 297.18$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2207…fb6fbacked Yes | 5c | 292.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 17c | 291.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 282.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…1e77backed No | 77c | 258.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…a7fcbacked Yes | 7c | 247.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 43c | 224$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 218.05$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 12c | 216.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 14c | 212.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked No | 74c | 210.47$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 50c | 207.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 7c | 205.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…5813backed Yes | 22c | 202.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…22b2backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…7b2cbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…67c6backed No | 51c | 196.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 169.21$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 31c | 159.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…4abfbacked Yes | 8c | 158.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 157.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…0010backed No | 65c | 152.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 62c | 148.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 65c | 145.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…25bebacked Yes | 8c | 142.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 142.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…1820backed No | 77c | 137.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…41eebacked No | 14c | 126.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 121.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 118.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 68c | 114.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed No | 44c | 113.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 20c | 107.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.