Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06bc56c24529ad696f19a3672874fb476ae024acaf98b40789022ccdc339f5ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $493,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $429,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 6c | 17,099$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.91 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 16,817$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.91 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 9c | 15,368$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.26 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 10c | 13,273$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 10,971$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.29 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 10,480$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.11 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 6c | 9,810$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 9,386$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.09 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,431$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.46 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,906$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.01 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 10c | 5,717$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 73c | 5,220$3,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.85 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 5,184$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.44 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…f68fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,282$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 33c | 4,197$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.07 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 65c | 4,097$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.68 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 16c | 4,085$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.59 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 4,058$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.43 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,026$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 4,002$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab4…b5a2backed Yes | 12c | 3,862$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 7c | 3,677$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 26c | 3,653$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…3d9fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,433$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,200$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 3,052$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…1132backed No | 73c | 3,004$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…a77dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,957$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,946$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,842$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 12c | 2,694$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Yes | 13c | 2,625$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,611$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,421$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 2,354$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…bfbbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,230$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,174$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 68c | 1,949$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 1,914$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 1,856$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,826$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed Yes | 11c | 1,800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…ad18backed Yes | 33c | 1,700$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,650$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…99b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,628$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 9c | 1,496$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed Yes | 11c | 1,495$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…15f4backed Yes | 13c | 1,370$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,369$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 15c | 1,300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,247$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…821ebacked No | 80c | 1,189$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…f01dbacked No | 73c | 1,186$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,171$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c0…1885backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 1,104$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,100$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,072$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18be…88a1backed No | 78c | 1,067$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,052$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 1,027$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,013$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 24cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…ebe0backed No | 77c | 1,007$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcf…75b9backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 20c | 975.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 29c | 946.9$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.62 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 10c | 910.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 14c | 904.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8561backed No | 67c | 902.1$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 9c | 899.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd8…e65bbacked Yes | 22c | 891.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…ce5dbacked Yes | 11c | 872.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…c5c8backed Yes | 1c | 854.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 36c | 827.98$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 827.55$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.98 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 58c | 796$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 57c | 750$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed No | 79c | 731.87$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 722$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…5666backed Yes | 4c | 718.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked No | 76c | 698.4$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 43c | 692$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…e2c4backed Yes | 13c | 679.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…fedfbacked Yes | 19c | 642.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 18c | 606.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 11c | 603.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 39c | 603$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?this page
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.