Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3dfff2cad527d4322090da2ed935311eaf0ebcf6fbcb1337af4ec364ee496de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 21c | 3,705$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 1,792$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,749$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Yes | 4c | 1,427$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,262$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,231$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…a21cbacked Yes | 5c | 839.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 442.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 6c | 394.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 5c | 390.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…0dbdbacked Yes | 4c | 357.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 76c | 337.93$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 242.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed Yes | 23c | 231.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…8ababacked No | 73c | 220$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…2430backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…42f6backed No | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 184.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…d735backed No | 72c | 146.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 15c | 145.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…639bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…e4dabacked Yes | 15c | 132.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 105.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b0…2554backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…ffc8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2d3ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 78c | 96.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 82.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…224ebacked No | 78c | 75.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa8…4ad5backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 63.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…1d1dbacked No | 74c | 47.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 66c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…d7cebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 59c | 18.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?this page
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.