Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb3dda930d411bdab3c579f50408b538e66e8b2af8edecdcbcecff7f66aa84b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,928$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 2c | 4,161$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 2,897$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.28 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 25c | 2,667$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.33 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,650$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.2 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,599$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 1,785$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.89 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 36c | 1,710$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Yes | 9c | 1,708$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 7c | 1,447$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,235$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,177$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed No | 70c | 1,088$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 80c | 1,046$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 4c | 1,008$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes | 6c | 996$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…d371backed No | 78c | 995.5$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…a3afbacked No | 62c | 989.99$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 9c | 795.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…ff55backed Yes | 14c | 781$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 31c | 731.72$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 18c | 727.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 15c | 722.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 720.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…2ca2backed Yes | 14c | 713$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes | 25c | 689.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…afb4backed Yes | 14c | 663$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3c…fb81backed Yes | 14c | 650$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…0740backed Yes | 7c | 630$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…9eb3backed Yes | 7c | 630$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…c80dbacked Yes | 14c | 630$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed Yes | 24c | 616.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…2d07backed Yes | 14c | 616$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…0b0fbacked Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…41bbbacked Yes | 14c | 586$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 25c | 565$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 13c | 563.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…1e57backed Yes | 4c | 562.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 9c | 555.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 28c | 540$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…ce70backed Yes | 6c | 540$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +604.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…62b0backed Yes | 6c | 540$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +594.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0300…b757backed Yes | 7c | 530$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…c92ebacked Yes | 7c | 525$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…3222backed Yes | 14c | 516$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…2eb1backed Yes | 14c | 516$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 15c | 509.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…3e9bbacked Yes | 6c | 508$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf552…7e03backed Yes | 6c | 508$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…e51fbacked Yes | 14c | 506$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 505.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…9f66backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…0326backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…cfdbbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…c643backed Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…620cbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 9c | 497.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158c…0612backed Yes | 7c | 490$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…d6a8backed Yes | 6c | 488$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…62c2backed Yes | 6c | 488$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…e154backed Yes | 6c | 486$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edf…b2e3backed Yes | 6c | 486$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 481.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…7549backed Yes | 7c | 480$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…7ea2backed Yes | 7c | 480$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…009ebacked Yes | 7c | 475$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 18c | 460.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 7c | 450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…8650backed No | 76c | 436.1$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 9c | 420.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…e326backed No | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 392.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 11c | 386.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked Yes | 6c | 379.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 15c | 377.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 30c | 368.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 361.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 26c | 332.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…d735backed No | 72c | 319.53$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 14c | 314.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 80c | 308.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…4ea0backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 289.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 5c | 284.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 25c | 273.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 19c | 270.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 266.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…a8d6backed No | 79c | 253.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 17c | 250.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6681…08c0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 10c | 229.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 25c | 225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?this page
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?No won
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.