Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af44ddef5486a93273814e3093bbd63d81278348229ad675d6f5e8e97d7234d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc406…ba02backed Yes | 4c | 5,129$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 17c | 2,435$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,947$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,843$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…8d50backed Yes | 1c | 1,596$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 8c | 1,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,168$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 69c | 1,087$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,030$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdf…59d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…a76abacked Yes | 9c | 857.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 31c | 757$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 703.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 68c | 697$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 689.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 614.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 71c | 610$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 29c | 610$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 588.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 6c | 577.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 571.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…351bbacked Yes | 9c | 546.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 4c | 523.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 8c | 510.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed Yes | 10c | 507.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 495.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 31c | 456$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…5dcabacked Yes | 10c | 410.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 355.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 6c | 314.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdf…7cdbbacked Yes | 10c | 309.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 32c | 257$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 10c | 250.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 8c | 240.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 6c | 237.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 32c | 232$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 74c | 222.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bf…5ca7backed Yes | 9c | 220.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Yes | 9c | 212.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 32c | 208$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 70c | 200.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 77c | 187.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 9c | 175.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…702cbacked No | 71c | 169.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e179backed Yes | 9c | 160.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 80c | 152.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…b888backed Yes | 38c | 130.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 23c | 113.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed Yes | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 76.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 57.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 78c | 50.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…8a94backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 61c | 37.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 65c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 76c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 61c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…938fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 75c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.