Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c7d191ee2808417523e00ac85a4682324af4f1d887243f9f69b388524d6942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,968,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,896,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,968,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 424 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 430,856$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…4e91backed Yes | 5c | 428,703$19,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,405.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 385,592$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 0c | 209,016$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 171,689$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…0616backed Yes | 0c | 138,854$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 1c | 127,531$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 1c | 121,514$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 8c | 104,892$7,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,872.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 4c | 102,175$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,380.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 1c | 92,705$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0d…ecf9backed Yes | 4c | 92,304$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,807.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 75,459$3,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.48 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…a831backed Yes | 4c | 64,716$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 0c | 64,708$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…22d5backed Yes | 5c | 58,500$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 53,785$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…2419backed Yes | 4c | 50,098$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d5…fd61backed Yes | 4c | 47,234$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 4c | 45,694$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 39,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 39,700$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.99 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 8c | 33,010$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 31,955$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.03 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 6c | 29,337$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7e…08f9backed Yes | 11c | 29,103$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,065.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…c623backed Yes | 4c | 26,798$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 6c | 24,770$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…accfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,063$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 5c | 22,784$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.7 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…e27fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,414$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 21,288$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.28 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…d887backed Yes | 10c | 21,181$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…63b4backed Yes | 6c | 20,522$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…e720backed Yes | 1c | 20,416$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1043…13ccbacked Yes | 7c | 19,122$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7525backed Yes | 1c | 18,607$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 1c | 18,440$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…7152backed Yes | 2c | 18,355$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…7f61backed Yes | 8c | 18,157$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,892$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…0f14backed Yes | 8c | 16,249$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…dbfabacked Yes | 2c | 15,555$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed Yes | 11c | 15,077$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +308.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…0534backed Yes | 9c | 15,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…a8fbbacked Yes | 6c | 14,409$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…b5c2backed Yes | 5c | 14,340$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…cbb7backed Yes | 3c | 13,730$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 5c | 12,815$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dc…40d0backed Yes | 1c | 12,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…37a7backed Yes | 1c | 12,258$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066c…1debbacked Yes | 8c | 11,694$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…0920backed Yes | 7c | 11,541$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…dfacbacked Yes | 7c | 11,200$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…1929backed Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,030$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…8674backed Yes | 6c | 10,614$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 10,356$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.47 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93d…a91abacked Yes | 8c | 10,289$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…9d68backed Yes | 7c | 10,196$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…3f61backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…ff2ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,992$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 1c | 9,933$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…185cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,384$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 2c | 9,100$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…3c4bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,098$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 8,852$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.95 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,636$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.67 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…bedebacked Yes | 7c | 8,580$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 3c | 8,556$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 8,543$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.88 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 7c | 8,486$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,460$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 8,387$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.44 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 8,258$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.66 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…567fbacked Yes | 8c | 8,047$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 7,997$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.05 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…4ec6backed Yes | 9c | 7,997$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b201backed Yes | 2c | 7,404$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,185$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029f…52f1backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…9534backed Yes | 1c | 6,854$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…c96bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,614$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…0992backed Yes | 5c | 6,064$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e5…3013backed Yes | 0c | 6,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9c…86e8backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes | 4c | 5,767$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…9b43backed Yes | 1c | 5,737$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…5963backed Yes | 3c | 5,661$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,556$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…1197backed Yes | 6c | 5,405$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…3b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,024$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…2996backed Yes | 3c | 5,006$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.