TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,968,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,896,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,968,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 424 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c430,856$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.441233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…4e91backed Yes5c428,703$19,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,405.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c385,592$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.811233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+42.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03de…5f73backed Yes0c209,016$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c171,689$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.351330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+227.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6913…0616backed Yes0c138,854$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes1c127,531$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed Yes1c121,514$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes8c104,892$7,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,872.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes4c102,175$4,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,380.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+114.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes1c92,705$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.341020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0d…ecf9backed Yes4c92,304$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,807.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes5c75,459$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.484517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccc…a831backed Yes4c64,716$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.32133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+56.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes0c64,708$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e3…22d5backed Yes5c58,500$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c53,785$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8214920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a34…2419backed Yes4c50,098$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50368.3%3 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d5…fd61backed Yes4c47,234$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9332…0f89backed Yes4c45,694$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c39,999$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes2c39,700$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.994920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf657…108ebacked Yes8c33,010$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c31,955$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.031811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes6c29,337$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.581118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7e…08f9backed Yes11c29,103$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa7…c623backed Yes4c26,798$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.69911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes6c24,770$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.781811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3034…accfbacked Yes0c23,063$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes5c22,784$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.7290%0 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52cb…e27fbacked Yes1c22,414$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c21,288$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.281432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5925…d887backed Yes10c21,181$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+86%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb30…63b4backed Yes6c20,522$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1537…e720backed Yes1c20,416$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes3c20,000$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1043…13ccbacked Yes7c19,122$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7525backed Yes1c18,607$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes1c18,440$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.992213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb37…7152backed Yes2c18,355$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed4…7f61backed Yes8c18,157$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.351315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53e…218dbacked Yes2c17,892$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick21cpaid+296.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4492…0f14backed Yes8c16,249$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076b…dbfabacked Yes2c15,555$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…7347backed Yes11c15,077$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+308.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7170…0534backed Yes9c15,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…a8fbbacked Yes6c14,409$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4961…b5c2backed Yes5c14,340$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5738…cbb7backed Yes3c13,730$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.11414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+251.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc13…9c34backed Yes5c12,815$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8dc…40d0backed Yes1c12,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa262…37a7backed Yes1c12,258$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066c…1debbacked Yes8c11,694$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed Yes7c11,541$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…dfacbacked Yes7c11,200$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d3…1929backed Yes9c11,111$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes6c11,030$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca4…8674backed Yes6c10,614$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c10,356$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.471074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb93d…a91abacked Yes8c10,289$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9d…9d68backed Yes7c10,196$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+214.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2899…3f61backed Yes5c10,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f5…ff2ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes1c9,992$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Yes1c9,933$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bd…185cbacked Yes1c9,384$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes2c9,100$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5317…3c4bbacked Yes1c9,098$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c8,852$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.951302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c8,636$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.67541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270d…bedebacked Yes7c8,580$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes3c8,556$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.08156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c8,543$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.88611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes7c8,486$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39df…644bbacked Yes4c8,460$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes5c8,387$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.44510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c8,258$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.669115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd39e…567fbacked Yes8c8,047$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes4c7,997$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.05120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8f4…4ec6backed Yes9c7,997$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87f…b201backed Yes2c7,404$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes5c7,185$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x029f…52f1backed Yes1c7,000$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18f…9534backed Yes1c6,854$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502c…c96bbacked Yes1c6,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes4c6,614$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.451216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed Yes5c6,064$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e5…3013backed Yes0c6,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9c…86e8backed Yes1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes4c5,767$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…9b43backed Yes1c5,737$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d2…5963backed Yes3c5,661$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes6c5,556$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.89616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ead…1197backed Yes6c5,405$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…3b6ebacked Yes1c5,024$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d9…2996backed Yes3c5,006$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.