TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes39c14,733$5,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,716.1921035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes28c11,677$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.2827536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes29c5,901$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.368247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No51c5,222$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.132339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf81…697dbacked Yes10c5,043$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c4,874$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.362674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No72c3,919$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes14c3,602$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.726931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No72c2,193$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.87850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes25c1,894$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.3211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes36c1,747$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.373710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes11c1,678$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes13c1,677$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes10c1,673$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.133330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes16c1,500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.048257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c1,297$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.323042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbd…ceeabacked No72c1,200$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes19c1,178$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2265240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes11c1,173$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5719818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes19c1,087$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbade…b0d9backed No75c1,058$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes76c1,051$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.422913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked No22c1,048$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.981618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes39c1,036$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.841752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes9c1,012$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.41560%9 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+180.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2006462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked No67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes7c999.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes27c916$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.995221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…11ffbacked No64c900$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes66c881.52$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.723125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes37c840$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.25567.1%4 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No57c828.95$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.955644.6%25 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes18c823.87$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8116519.4%32 W · 133 L-21.3wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-50.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c750.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.562792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes15c739.28$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.09540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes13c720.29$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.691388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes22c714.4$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.694167.5%31 W · 385 L-25.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes71c699.97$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.985246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0e…4a20backed Yes11c696.67$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes9c682.55$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.43185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes35c678.1$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes23c658.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No74c610$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.73046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0d…835bbacked No72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a10…7843backed No71c590$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd4…5127backed Yes22c554.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked No71c540$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes30c520$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.82737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa28e…b220backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes14c465$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7528826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…700cbacked No24c463.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+321.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c460.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4115047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c456.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.341,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes3c415.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes69c399.99$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2788543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd335…f0debacked No75c392.68$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes72c384.89$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.243145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes25c362.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.538746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes22c361.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdde4…7bfdbacked No74c335.28$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.79944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes47c334.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+101.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes36c329.17$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.921330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes19c327.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes60c327.39$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.023333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No63c315.54$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2510561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10890%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes19c279.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.22626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994e…15b4backed Yes9c274.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No48c270.57$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c264.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b8…bb8dbacked No64c262.07$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aed…feacbacked No76c261.36$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No73c257.52$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5314337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No59c254.23$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.235341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes24c248.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.922133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes20c248.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.88442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes27c242.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.492969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No61c240.66$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.179041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes26c227.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f5…17fcbacked Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed Yes66c225.27$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…5c2abacked Yes13c223.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes14c219.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.813056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked No66c218.28$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.382737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes24c204.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.082729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64a0…9d96backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac3c…c929backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes11c199.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed No71c198$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes19c191.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.342272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+33.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd9c…be4dbacked No42c190$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.