TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05df…882dbacked Yes18c19,922$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c53…8c30backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes65c9,999$6,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,536.341421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No80c9,155$7,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.287146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed Yes60c8,742$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked Yes26c5,976$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9d…4c53backed Yes58c5,720$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.7760%0 W · 6 L-3.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes49c4,640$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No60c4,250$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.845547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No43c4,145$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,359.413333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No43c3,520$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.288220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed No61c3,272$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes43c3,064$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.445240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2224…23e1backed No62c2,476$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.211020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No52c2,466$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+287.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No57c2,416$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.135644.6%25 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No53c2,300$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0883652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No34c2,144$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.121540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No65c2,100$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.492454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes40c2,067$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.327536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed No60c2,000$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.071546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes33c1,977$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.9727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No41c1,965$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.012240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No54c1,920$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.224551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No44c1,635$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.321216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3068…083dbacked No61c1,627$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No53c1,600$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.9811425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes37c1,476$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.55632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked No56c1,366$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No57c1,331$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No53c1,123$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.95448.1%26 W · 28 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No37c1,061$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes10c1,012$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4219337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked No66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No50c950$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.012254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb986…4b60backed Yes13c934.83$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.271118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes29c931.4$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4817824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4773…2289backed No53c921.48$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c918$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes35c899.99$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed No36c847.71$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes31c837.8$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3213422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed Yes37c810$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.71428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes56c805.08$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7721035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes23c789.6$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7616418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No48c765$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes35c759.53$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.373514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No46c755$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.025225%13 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked No40c739.37$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.88825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No39c720.46$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.55538.2%21 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed No40c704.99$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No54c700.31$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.279444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5b…babfbacked No70c676.59$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.37560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes36c673.26$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.593943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…91cdbacked No79c661.35$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.355100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes27c649.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf0…3bccbacked No43c615.11$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c58…13b9backed No80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No39c600$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3652055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac2…99bfbacked Yes2c599.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc23…8dccbacked No42c596.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b6…2c93backed Yes46c592.52$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bf…75b5backed No51c571.95$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4272…10c2backed No56c557.31$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No45c543.47$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.73946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4935…dfdabacked Yes33c502.52$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No60c500$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.281145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+73.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25d9…ff14backed No73c494.99$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No58c479.36$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.658241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa184…eaa4backed No54c462.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No42c460$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.28442.9%36 W · 48 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes20c460$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes40c447$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.675742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No62c445$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.393633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No51c439.84$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked No57c430.42$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.331163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No29c407.56$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.793046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No63c407.4$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.912533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No47c395.04$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.81866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x474f…5f02backed No45c392.53$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No67c388.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.371675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc66b…02aabacked Yes22c388.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.45128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-87.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9bab…e6a2backed No66c365.93$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9d…7971backed Yes39c360.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes30c359.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.795521.8%12 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked No58c354.43$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No43c351.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.761526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7ec8backed No77c347.88$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No46c345.05$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.8911636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No59c341.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4610723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c330.3$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.381,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1648…a676backed No70c321.25$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.53977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked No51c319.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.992638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked No66c304.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.64520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…a1bfbacked No58c303.25$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1956734.3%23 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.