TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9bab…e6a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4168.3%28 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$10.35
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.4
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$4.22
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.96
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.46
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+69.2%+$59.79
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.84
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$21.62
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$15.9
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$47.66
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.92
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.32
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$55.31
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$59.74
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$109.58
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.15
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-26.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+213.7%+$42.74
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$845Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$720.04
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.25
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$62.73
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,444.72
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$780.37
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,545Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,544.68
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.02
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$58.03
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.82
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$9.77
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,519Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$1,213.84
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$118.17
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$39.44
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,078Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.62
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$576Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$178.13
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$714Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+197.2%+$1,407.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$3.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.