TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,643,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,498,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,643,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 774 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea40…05a7backed No43c114,816$49,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,445.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53f…8707backed Yes57c114,816$65,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,445.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ad…f71abacked No80c103,056$82,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,689.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No65c97,811$63,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,367.854459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…b587backed Yes55c86,837$47,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,760.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6c…623dbacked No45c86,800$39,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,7401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c38,442$3,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.4314121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a1…7c68backed Yes27c31,567$8,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,422.62175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed Yes17c30,466$5,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,185.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No62c29,085$18,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,978.1314456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes11c27,990$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,202.574445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No52c22,248$11,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,718.381770.6%12 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+44.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes9c20,000$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.28175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-89%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes35c19,333$6,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,762.442825%7 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c19,175$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.0825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes35c16,671$5,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,861.3910137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes14c16,600$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes48c16,572$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c15,685$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,141.8526835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked Yes19c15,290$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9284946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes31c12,173$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,825.496033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes7c10,941$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes4c10,774$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.03430%0 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked No55c10,148$5,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,569.441485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick72cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5738…cbb7backed Yes2c10,115$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.831414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+251.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a3…0b52backed Yes11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No77c9,774$7,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac22…5442backed Yes28c9,677$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.980%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5228…6c8ebacked Yes20c9,482$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No76c9,045$6,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.112850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes17c8,851$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.0611040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed Yes12c8,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc7…b6e4backed Yes63c8,324$5,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.7240%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17bd…d2bdbacked Yes8c8,171$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No48c7,806$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,038.324852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No52c7,210$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6710…1220backed Yes5c6,676$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes9c6,417$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.681040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes16c6,308$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes7c6,132$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-58.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked No33c5,859$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,898.843284.4%27 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+63.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Yes20c5,490$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c5,369$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.555327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7720…da92backed Yes11c5,277$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2180%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f39…d452backed Yes32c5,080$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.1950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2adc…8c20backed Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes13c4,954$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No75c4,655$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.664656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes9c4,515$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.823826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb271…afdebacked Yes40c4,412$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b0…4f37backed Yes23c4,287$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes34c4,199$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf652…56afbacked Yes47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8801030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes12c3,980$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c3,913$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.61752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc2…77e0backed Yes11c3,777$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c3,565$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.659115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed Yes19c3,443$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.863540%14 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed Yes28c3,321$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.882142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd152…4faabacked Yes25c3,219$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes50c3,206$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+195.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes5c3,203$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf21…7482backed Yes29c3,197$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-76.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb438…cb51backed Yes1c3,157$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c9…4ecfbacked Yes9c3,079$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e59…b85abacked Yes21c3,028$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9603727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes3c2,880$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.681931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes3c2,824$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.264515.6%7 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes36c2,808$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes23c2,787$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.032450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e8…14f0backed No63c2,715$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.911560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1292…e678backed Yes19c2,694$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes14c2,691$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.533414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes22c2,548$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.856336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes39c2,482$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.192931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed Yes18c2,462$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.6185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No32c2,420$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6474953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes1c2,396$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.613917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cdf…c324backed Yes63c2,385$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c2,328$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.51432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb09…cfe0backed Yes43c2,323$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes22c2,276$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.693743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb5e5…77e4backed Yes11c2,224$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes2c2,117$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes3c2,100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes17c2,091$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.294634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes51c2,078$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes10c2,065$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.238711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes32c2,052$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick45cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8820…7879backed Yes15c2,010$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes20c2,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3803161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes63c1,993$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.513119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,953$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.29864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes50c1,947$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.683438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes10c1,908$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8426238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c1,854$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No30c1,822$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.292365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.