AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4c4276d42af0e345e9eb37acdb3d0c22a128951b28fb93e37263124cee092a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1568…2a89backed Yes | 39c | 13,848$5,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,480.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 2c | 9,947$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 44c | 8,200$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 64c | 7,386$4,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.1 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5ec1backed Yes | 33c | 7,075$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 5,312$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.95 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 5,202$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.99 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 4,137$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.46 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 0c | 3,836$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed No | 41c | 3,634$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 18c | 3,359$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.67 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6c…ccd5backed No | 55c | 3,261$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 32c | 2,809$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…0fb9backed Yes | 37c | 2,720$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…19b8backed Yes | 37c | 2,631$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 2,459$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 40c | 2,391$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 60c | 2,227$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.49 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 63c | 1,881$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.35 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…787cbacked No | 38c | 1,876$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 40c | 1,651$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…961ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,573$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 1,571$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.18 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 1c | 1,561$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…a58dbacked No | 55c | 1,532$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 1,528$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.11 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…7321backed Yes | 40c | 1,467$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…6780backed Yes | 55c | 1,389$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,341$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.48 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14d…8e78backed No | 76c | 1,320$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 31c | 1,217$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed No | 68c | 1,163$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 1,145$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 70c | 1,079$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…b094backed No | 7c | 1,056$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 969.02$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 55c | 960.51$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 63c | 947.5$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 75c | 946.98$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.68 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 854.08$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.36 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 36c | 837.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +238.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…8f95backed Yes | 30c | 816.69$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…8b53backed No | 26c | 713.66$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 56c | 706.14$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 35c | 699.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 61c | 649.6$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.54 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…f100backed Yes | 45c | 625.53$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 66c | 616.67$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 58c | 567.83$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.18 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 512$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.97 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed No | 24c | 500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…38ffbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 470$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…837ebacked No | 37c | 467.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 429.84$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…41e0backed No | 41c | 419.55$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…c87abacked No | 60c | 409.12$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 371.88$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 61c | 337.63$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 53c | 332$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked No | 42c | 310$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 284.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…35fdbacked No | 75c | 270$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 255.74$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 238.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…cf34backed Yes | 34c | 223.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f2…3860backed No | 71c | 216.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…b7aabacked No | 70c | 215.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…1facbacked No | 24c | 210.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…44f1backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…4b30backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…e12bbacked No | 57c | 197.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 66c | 194.67$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…9336backed Yes | 29c | 176.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 174.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d7…c25cbacked No | 27c | 172.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…6686backed No | 71c | 165.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…a86fbacked No | 25c | 161.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…457ebacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 41c | 140.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973c…cfc0backed No | 50c | 140.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 55c | 136$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed No | 75c | 133.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed Yes | 39c | 129.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 126.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 28c | 125.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed No | 44c | 118.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…eb11backed No | 27c | 106.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b8…7bf1backed No | 75c | 105.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…4e26backed No | 23c | 102.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…849cbacked No | 31c | 100.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae0…6385backed No | 22c | 99.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 18, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 20, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.