Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1f2f0054e31e702ab533a0f6ab859c7640523eb0ded5454c393938331fe054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 443.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Yes | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 49c | 341.76$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 43c | 305.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 69c | 291.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 5c | 281.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 33c | 177.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…27d8backed No | 32c | 153.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 124.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked No | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…b99ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 65.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 48.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…7806backed Yes | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 63c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…8d36backed Yes | 74c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…804abacked Yes | 63c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.