TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,944,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,777,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,944,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 816 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5482…b6eebacked Yes1c53,006$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No24c51,716$12,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,069.534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No13c51,697$6,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,803.555932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…2e83backed No18c43,652$8,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,586.1825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes6c42,498$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.3314126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes0c31,581$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.826622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No27c30,612$8,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,293.6410646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f9…f701backed Yes24c29,953$7,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,139.71361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes23c28,706$6,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,654.3811741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c26,937$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.414440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes71c22,000$15,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,548.35366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes38c21,535$8,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,206.910127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0c…ca5abacked Yes73c20,273$14,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,900.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28a7…0792backed Yes75c16,154$12,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,110.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd5…e689backed Yes1c15,361$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes0c14,418$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No32c13,553$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,237.0322355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No20c13,441$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,764.0717037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a0…a9e4backed No10c12,191$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,976.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+190.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0b…4700backed No11c11,343$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,150.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+851.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No29c11,230$3,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,947.5639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54cb…d1e7backed Yes79c10,117$7,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,981.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No22c9,971$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,813.321546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No22c9,778$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,642.874334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86d5…29e9backed Yes64c9,509$6,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,100.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No19c9,244$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,451.5218628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes53c8,208$4,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,370.5443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes70c8,037$5,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.257357.5%42 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes34c7,903$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.366756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No19c7,327$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.686914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes78c7,000$5,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,457.777436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c1…9e98backed Yes79c6,853$5,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,413.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Yes1c6,765$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c0…c45cbacked Yes74c6,675$4,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,923.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e84…cb30backed No15c6,329$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,380.893100%3 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+509.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2aaf…4956backed Yes78c5,926$4,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,604.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa515…ed29backed No17c5,726$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,778.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+504.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No43c5,714$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,228.6812249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No15c5,231$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,423.186418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes78c5,220$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.761346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ed7…a4c0backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No53c4,985$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.628456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c4,814$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,462.9254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No23c4,800$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,684.026219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes22c4,494$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No28c4,323$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.9210038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709d…5501backed Yes75c4,317$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No34c4,294$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.2513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked No18c4,271$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.872045%9 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf626…4223backed Yes63c4,231$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes66c4,136$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.115942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No25c3,757$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.4613444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe699…407dbacked No16c3,756$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.15475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+329.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No9c3,743$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,408.6514027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a2…646cbacked No37c3,687$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.73100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+312.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes29c3,650$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.1152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe797…b258backed No11c3,428$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.19475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick11cpaid+1,171.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb5f5…65e6backed Yes69c3,230$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No8c3,192$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.991357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…7a80backed No18c3,180$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+451.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73e…d6bfbacked No24c3,172$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.941030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde23…3c99backed Yes0c3,105$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d1…32f4backed Yes49c3,076$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.24366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x075c…0986backed Yes75c3,063$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No34c3,054$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.348821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1211…87c6backed Yes1c3,028$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc95…bbcebacked Yes77c3,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebd3…faadbacked Yes76c2,976$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,261.4966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48d2…7961backed Yes77c2,960$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.011752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ad…2e4fbacked Yes76c2,938$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No47c2,913$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.7216535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f42…4233backed No15c2,909$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.67825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+121.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c88…bfd6backed No10c2,906$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+457.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdaa…39afbacked Yes71c2,820$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No43c2,819$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.3626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0a…e0ecbacked Yes71c2,788$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.65666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No20c2,754$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.266536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No24c2,746$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.574161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6110…5d2ebacked No8c2,725$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.17475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick11cpaid+684.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa7…316bbacked No21c2,710$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,128.42520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No42c2,667$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes78c2,605$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.591258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No12c2,598$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.871435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+126%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No22c2,520$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.7731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes75c2,509$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x247f…4fe0backed Yes79c2,502$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f2…b35fbacked Yes80c2,463$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf989…9389backed No16c2,426$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.75580%4 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.67per pick13cpaid+597.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No22c2,414$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.92875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed No12c2,394$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.71560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+350.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c2,387$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.432117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No19c2,363$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.6832255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c2,308$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.232543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4734…0979backed Yes17c2,302$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.721225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes72c2,246$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.368632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6435…f376backed Yes69c2,123$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c2,111$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.7656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe436…011abacked Yes73c2,032$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x102f…7a56backed Yes77c2,021$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No19c2,005$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.594035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.