World Politics · resolved market
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3baca5b0070978e7518ec4fbaf7ac79e30eb8adc48534e0004780fca2a59a2f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 22,186$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…072abacked Yes | 0c | 16,115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,449$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…aa44backed Yes | 1c | 10,212$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,401$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 2,382$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…219ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,017$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…ac64backed Yes | 4c | 1,970$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5850…dc65backed Yes | 4c | 1,964$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0d…64acbacked Yes | 3c | 1,957$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…ddc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,754$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…dfb3backed Yes | 3c | 1,715$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…416bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,704$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…f08cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,687$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…4058backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65c…746abacked Yes | 1c | 1,631$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…f3dbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,624$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b5…0352backed Yes | 3c | 1,588$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…65fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,494$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…f084backed Yes | 3c | 1,491$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…41cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,397$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…efb7backed Yes | 3c | 1,369$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4b…727dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,358$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…188bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,272$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…cd78backed Yes | 3c | 1,198$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…94cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,192$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…7b39backed Yes | 4c | 1,108$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…9ffabacked Yes | 3c | 1,094$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…f256backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdb…d61abacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad59…345dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,005$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422b…55f2backed Yes | 4c | 991$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…0e55backed Yes | 3c | 970$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…35d1backed Yes | 4c | 929$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…1912backed Yes | 3c | 914$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…b806backed Yes | 4c | 901$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…a5a4backed Yes | 4c | 702$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…5589backed Yes | 4c | 694$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…9fc9backed Yes | 4c | 650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff11…0df8backed Yes | 4c | 641$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 4c | 539.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…1729backed Yes | 11c | 401.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…d88cbacked Yes | 3c | 344.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.