TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$509,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc1cc…ced0backed Yes0c57,260$57 inLost-$57.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost-$40234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…8186backed Yes0c35,226$70 inLost-$70.4590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e0…0198backed Yes0c30,830$62 inLost-$61.6690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c26,071$37 inLost-$37.074440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e96…5da8backed Yes1c10,100$91 inLost-$90.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a73…2d4cbacked Yes1c6,925$97 inLost-$96.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f54…7f79backed Yes0c6,845$14 inLost-$13.6970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf44…9446backed Yes2c5,814$93 inLost-$93.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237d…dbd4backed Yes2c4,809$77 inLost-$76.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,487$20 inLost-$20.121691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,740$15 inLost-$15.226883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf1d…44fdbacked Yes1c1,721$10 inLost-$10.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edc…f593backed Yes1c1,659$12 inLost-$11.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712e…359fbacked Yes1c1,639$11 inLost-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6799…6df4backed Yes1c1,613$13 inLost-$12.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba97…db6abacked Yes1c1,559$22 inLost-$21.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65c…746abacked Yes2c1,423$23 inLost-$22.86263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd173…abfbbacked Yes1c801$11 inLost-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…1729backed Yes2c469.52$10 inLost-$10.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac00…1e51backed Yes3c422.74$11 inLost-$111421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.