TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,318,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,480,836

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,318,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 830 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes9c148,674$12,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,879.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick13cpaid+418.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa83c…a8f4backed Yes34c97,470$32,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,630.251060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No27c61,599$16,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,498.7411741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes52c58,269$30,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,020.9811853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c51,798$38,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,819.4634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c45,975$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,975.1611349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c43,227$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.694440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No0c43,185$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.586622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ddd…98c3backed Yes9c40,012$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,479.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+183.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes25c38,850$9,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,078.224334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No70c36,163$25,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,376.062433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0afa…cf79backed Yes36c33,257$11,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,323.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No1c32,720$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.327225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No70c31,258$21,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,983.3210646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes11c31,013$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,606.9817037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…d6ddbacked Yes18c25,387$4,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,817.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No38c25,000$9,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,549.9810127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes22c24,284$5,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,948.476250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked No0c23,250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3994…62acbacked Yes28c22,391$6,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,098.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+255.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a1…5580backed Yes20c21,474$4,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,158.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+397.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No73c21,279$15,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,630.713036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa398…6c83backed Yes24c19,908$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,055.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+310.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No64c18,468$11,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,868.0122355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa7…316bbacked No4c17,899$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.52520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…e3cabacked Yes25c17,461$4,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,148.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+166.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes66c17,070$11,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,872.3916535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes4c16,196$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,587.165721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes22c13,167$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,311.74161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbe37…617abacked Yes7c13,144$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,165.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+836.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0f5…8565backed Yes11c11,793$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,450.77450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+208.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Yes12c11,775$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,356.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+350.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e84…cb30backed Yes15c11,470$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,783.53100%3 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+509.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes30c11,154$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,803.4614240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes66c11,100$7,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,725.618632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5073…4bcfbacked Yes28c10,553$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,639.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+262.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639d…4777backed Yes5c10,550$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,042.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+409.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes23c10,487$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,050.976756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes29c10,436$3,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,423.862352.2%12 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+23%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Yes18c9,052$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,465.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+130.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes24c9,005$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,873.14035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x715d…80bbbacked Yes30c8,820$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,207.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes21c8,631$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,822.962147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No1c7,800$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.81120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c7,640$5,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,052.3539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6110…5d2ebacked Yes7c7,464$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,959.13475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick11cpaid+684.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe699…407dbacked Yes17c7,439$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,159.39475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+329.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4c5…3e0ebacked Yes24c7,167$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,471.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+92.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes4c7,000$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7053429.4%10 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+167.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No75c6,978$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.396914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes30c6,719$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.256536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes5c6,677$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,374.051833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a2…646cbacked Yes16c6,326$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,322.943100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+312.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes38c6,288$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,902.734348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes4c5,900$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6685135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes4c5,782$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,552.692722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70f0…e8eebacked Yes25c5,749$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,339.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+78.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5673…4926backed Yes16c5,654$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,774.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+542.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes9c5,636$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,149.42887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick43cpaid+241.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x32d4…b3d3backed Yes22c5,538$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.63875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+204.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c5,431$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,077.741357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…1169backed Yes25c5,360$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,030.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+198.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c5,292$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,860.046883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…1f8dbacked Yes29c5,271$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+239.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes14c5,083$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,347.383941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No54c4,934$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.1412249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes18c4,694$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,836.716219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae11…9566backed Yes12c4,646$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,108.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+293%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x709d…5501backed No66c4,618$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes10c4,595$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,145.314753.2%25 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes21c4,518$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.84875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…d4ecbacked Yes3c4,427$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,294.191100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes16c4,307$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,622.08825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+114.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf989…9389backed Yes10c4,302$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,861.94580%4 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.67per pick13cpaid+597.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes9c4,300$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8964250%21 W · 21 L+11.9wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+178.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf360…4d73backed Yes25c4,087$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes28c4,000$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.753348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No63c3,946$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.913748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3c…a397backed Yes27c3,943$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+277%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c3,809$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.0552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c3,795$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.1226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c62…06fcbacked Yes22c3,728$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,902.5580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+150%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac26…06ffbacked Yes14c3,721$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,215.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+201.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b93…8564backed Yes18c3,679$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,007.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+354.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec55…a300backed Yes31c3,633$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,493.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes6c3,589$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.768142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c88…bfd6backed Yes7c3,565$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+457.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xcca0…1d3ebacked Yes11c3,563$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,181.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+607.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c42…213bbacked No1c3,529$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bce…b4f8backed Yes11c3,474$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+402%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c3,455$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.142543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…12c0backed Yes6c3,446$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.47425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed Yes9c3,416$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.94850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+237.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd739…25b1backed Yes6c3,412$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+574.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3374…ebdfbacked Yes4c3,324$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,176.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,029.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a3…9b79backed No75c3,319$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-44.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c3,257$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.121,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c3,227$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.212117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cc…99a3backed Yes9c3,157$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+618.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.