TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$336,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,178 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c93,508$94 inLost-$93.51234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c40,798$41 inLost-$40.8190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c16,711$28 inLost-$27.714440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c13,433$14 inLost-$14.1410%0 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e0…0198backed Yes0c12,477$25 inLost-$24.9590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…8186backed Yes0c12,477$25 inLost-$24.9590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b17…6adbbacked Yes0c11,290$23 inLost-$22.5870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d7…c9e1backed Yes0c11,008$22 inLost-$22.0270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f54…7f79backed Yes0c10,107$20 inLost-$20.2170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c7,749$19 inLost-$19.011691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7b…f717backed Yes0c6,263$13 inLost-$12.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65c…746abacked Yes1c1,430$18 inLost-$17.72263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes1c1,107$15 inLost-$151225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.