TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,138,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$666,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,138,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcaf5…feb5backed Yes1c163,583$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c98,308$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.984440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes1c47,576$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.835628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0a…9104backed Yes0c35,197$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c88…bfd6backed Yes1c31,497$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.49per pick18cpaid+457.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x90f5…2c01backed Yes1c31,092$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c30,854$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.931691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes0c29,375$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.71333%1 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-94.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa543…d47ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eaa…9dd9backed Yes4c17,665$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.171612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33f…ff7fbacked Yes1c17,623$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…5124backed Yes1c15,804$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0414…be21backed Yes2c15,668$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.825721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c13,976$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33410%0 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes13c13,818$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.4917037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc25d…17b8backed Yes1c11,397$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3879…d8c3backed Yes0c11,181$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes1c9,171$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c8,948$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2714126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c8,350$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.361357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes1c8,107$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c7,044$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.72372.7%1 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,135$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.21,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes1c5,477$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.412433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c5,447$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.192543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b6…29bbbacked Yes3c5,265$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+117.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fa…71c2backed Yes3c4,836$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca83…8b16backed Yes0c4,834$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+121.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c4,477$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.714511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d89…a6fbbacked Yes0c4,223$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes2c3,957$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+461.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c3,702$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.324766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d9…5c4ebacked Yes9c3,291$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301f…c20ebacked Yes9c3,191$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2dc…f717backed Yes0c2,901$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes0c2,862$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4519315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f7…7242backed Yes9c2,744$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,663$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf781…fc38backed Yes9c2,559$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c2,392$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3350%0 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c02…7523backed Yes9c2,375$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…67bcbacked Yes9c2,310$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46bb…abbebacked Yes9c2,287$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c2,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.894211.9%5 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ef…41a7backed Yes8c2,166$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebbe…839bbacked Yes9c2,108$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes1c2,104$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9978…ad31backed Yes8c2,093$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes5c2,080$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.324035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc02b…abd4backed Yes9c2,075$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,053$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.84537.5%4 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac25…7410backed Yes9c2,040$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbab…c00bbacked Yes9c2,038$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09e3…f451backed Yes9c2,008$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x918a…6a0cbacked Yes20c1,882$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08bb…3ba9backed Yes9c1,852$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3797…8be6backed Yes1c1,739$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.890%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1861…962abacked Yes3c1,702$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c1,687$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.43917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…890dbacked Yes9c1,667$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes5c1,643$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.326914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78c3…171ebacked Yes4c1,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.521435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6902…b2cdbacked Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd2…a272backed Yes8c1,486$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa690…ff2fbacked Yes9c1,465$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64c…d5febacked Yes9c1,434$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c1,415$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d33…7043backed Yes9c1,410$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+358.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9139…2bacbacked Yes8c1,386$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a2…1f75backed Yes9c1,375$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ac…055ebacked Yes9c1,310$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a92…c0d7backed Yes8c1,304$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes2c1,277$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-92%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d2…fc5abacked Yes9c1,212$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6547…f8b2backed Yes9c1,189$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,185$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.992344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c1,166$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.066219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf245…3152backed Yes8c1,159$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3608…7f93backed Yes9c1,145$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e38…6379backed Yes9c1,143$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes2c1,142$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…d93abacked Yes10c1,131$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c1,126$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.836883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d94…43fdbacked Yes9c1,119$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes2c1,094$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…ec0bbacked Yes2c1,077$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bf…b27fbacked Yes9c1,035$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c1,009$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4324110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…59d2backed Yes9c1,005$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298b…44a7backed Yes9c991$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b54…5fcfbacked Yes9c931$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6110…5d2ebacked Yes3c929.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.64per pick11cpaid+684.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93dc…7936backed Yes9c921$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes2c918.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cd…0440backed Yes9c912$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5365…b30abacked Yes9c905$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d4b…2dc3backed Yes1c900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb10…f669backed Yes8c848$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3f…313bbacked Yes10c806.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.041060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe859…bb2abacked Yes10c779$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.