Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709f7a236b27180f120a23913387e11d8bbaf2e59418dd2d9efd513276742bdf

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	6c	3,481$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.74	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	13c	2,092$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.39	147	29.9%44 W · 103 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	15c	1,535$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.99	115	22.6%26 W · 89 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	11c	1,486$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.8	210	33.3%70 W · 140 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	14c	1,214$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.19	343	33.5%115 W · 228 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No	16c	1,200$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.14	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-91.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	7c	1,057$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.65	107	22.4%24 W · 83 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	77c	1,047$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.12	154	45.5%70 W · 84 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	12c	820.23$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.81	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No	8c	772.02$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.03	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes	78c	769.7$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.05	229	48.9%112 W · 117 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No	13c	761.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	4c	699.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	315	34%107 W · 208 L	-11.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No	14c	629.66$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.85	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No	14c	586.24$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.37	73	52.1%38 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	10c	570.32$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.17	131	43.5%57 W · 74 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	18c	459.69$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.73	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No	8c	456$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	25c	427.48$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.02	334	21.9%73 W · 261 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed Yes	47c	417.52$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.4	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No	52c	414.4$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.2	228	33.8%77 W · 151 L	+13.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	14c	385.88$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.08	152	32.9%50 W · 102 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	13c	368.21$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	7c	348$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	12c	344$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	171	40.4%69 W · 102 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	17c	324.6$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.45	123	30.9%38 W · 85 L	-10.0wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No	16c	324.14$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No	19c	318.17$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.28	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No	11c	308.47$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No	10c	307$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.71	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	18c	290.58$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.37	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No	16c	276.06$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.56	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	-8.4wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	6c	271.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	182	37.4%68 W · 114 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No	15c	270$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	91	47.3%43 W · 48 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	9c	266.73$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	14c	261$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.92	90	35.6%32 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58bb…a539backed No	18c	250$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	14c	209.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.07	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No	7c	205$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	12c	204.06$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.05	109	46.8%51 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No	5c	200.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	93	26.9%25 W · 68 L	-8.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No	16c	199.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No	18c	199.25$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.43	68	26.5%18 W · 50 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No	6c	195.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	30c	178.77$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.96	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No	9c	178.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No	10c	177.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No	15c	172$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.36	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No	9c	171.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba6c…618bbacked No	10c	168.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.91	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-57%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No	18c	168.06$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	15c	165.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	248	31%77 W · 171 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No	18c	150$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	56	37.5%21 W · 35 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-36%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	19c	147.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	168	33.3%56 W · 112 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No	8c	146.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes	69c	145.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.21	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	9c	132$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	102	45.1%46 W · 56 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	62c	125.99$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	13c	124.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	450	35.1%158 W · 292 L	-37.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes	43c	110$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.7	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfb6b…9c50backed No	19c	107.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.41	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…96dbbacked No	18c	105.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No	10c	104.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a6…d3abbacked No	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	2.9%3 W · 101 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb598…14fcbacked No	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	29c	90.42$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.96	87	18.4%16 W · 71 L	-8.5wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	70c	90$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.1	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	15c	86.93$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	136	47.1%64 W · 72 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No	56c	82.68$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.3	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9536…6616backed No	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No	14c	76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x738e…827abacked Yes	50c	63.14$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked Yes	24c	57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.32	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+126.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	45c	55.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked No	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d38…4850backed Yes	48c	42.88$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes	29c	42.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.92	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes	32c	37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.11	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ce…b872backed Yes	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No	75c	26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No	64c	26$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae1f…04f1backed No	60c	25.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5428…38ecbacked Yes	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…5e27backed Yes	49c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.3	95	78.9%75 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	74cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2657…bad1backed Yes	79c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.15	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?this page
Will Charlotte O’Hara win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Scott Schwab win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Vicki Schmidt win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?

What this market resolved to

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