Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa25aa5ffdb235f693e38b8eee295604bd431d87fda4f79c5dc5f152ea875b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5619…ee5bbacked No | 67c | 1,997$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…8179backed No | 66c | 1,848$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a6…d85ebacked Yes | 10c | 479.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 352.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 22c | 319$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 290.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…827abacked Yes | 41c | 208.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 38c | 165.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 161.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 18c | 126.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 40c | 121.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 47c | 104$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 15c | 97.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 57.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 62c | 46.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 42c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d38…4850backed Yes | 41c | 42.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…2289backed No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 68c | 26.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…5d5abacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 13.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeff Colyer win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Charlotte O’Hara win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Joy Eakins win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Scott Schwab win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Vicki Schmidt win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.