Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d9cd66b6243209edf9312b14701622f64578e17e1f2eb678f24819433d7619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,245,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,268,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,245,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed Yes | 6c | 299,999$17,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,399.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…5d0abacked Yes | 10c | 30,441$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 8c | 29,836$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 6c | 23,469$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 8c | 23,010$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 17c | 17,415$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…df3fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,213$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 8c | 15,026$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.16 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 7c | 13,736$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.25 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 13,538$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.07 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 5c | 13,372$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 6c | 12,996$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 7c | 12,159$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.24 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 5c | 10,802$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 13c | 10,741$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.12 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 10,352$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 9c | 10,016$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 9c | 9,595$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…2e2dbacked Yes | 5c | 8,820$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 8,747$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.22 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 10c | 8,153$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 11c | 7,555$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.11 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,620$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.64 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…908abacked Yes | 2c | 5,218$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ff…44a9backed Yes | 12c | 5,035$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…ecd1backed Yes | 6c | 4,800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…1555backed Yes | 10c | 4,780$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,137$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.68 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 9c | 4,047$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 4,010$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…8d97backed Yes | 2c | 3,961$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…6140backed Yes | 5c | 3,793$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 3,719$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 8c | 3,710$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.74 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,512$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.57 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 3,424$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…05ebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,414$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes | 8c | 3,351$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.28 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…6ddebacked Yes | 16c | 3,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +264.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…be2cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 2,889$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,850$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 11c | 2,646$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.5 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…c1a7backed Yes | 6c | 2,501$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,480$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…9815backed Yes | 9c | 2,428$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 7c | 2,379$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,366$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…7d84backed Yes | 5c | 2,350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…e68cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…b251backed Yes | 6c | 2,170$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 2,139$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 1,994$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 1c | 1,890$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…bfa2backed Yes | 16c | 1,881$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,873$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…a059backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…96febacked Yes | 2c | 1,783$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 7c | 1,745$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…bddfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,743$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf3…b1babacked Yes | 9c | 1,707$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed Yes | 9c | 1,690$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,681$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Yes | 10c | 1,664$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 1,619$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.18 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…7486backed Yes | 7c | 1,595$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,566$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,563$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 8c | 1,535$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,506$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 11cpaid | +811.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…aab7backed Yes | 7c | 1,494$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…7f85backed Yes | 14c | 1,455$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…05f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,442$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 8c | 1,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…3bf0backed Yes | 19c | 1,332$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,253$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…53fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +893.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2223…f7f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…fb07backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…11c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,164$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,142$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…fe71backed Yes | 9c | 1,118$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…9a89backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,088$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 7c | 1,047$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…58b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,036$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,020$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…120dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…9a72backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.