Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46f15cb064fb468e39de360f14f5847898ef9b1489d15e9df702b92f1836598d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,408,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,477,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,408,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 4c | 145,336$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,499.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 2c | 131,928$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.68 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…fd81backed Yes | 31c | 63,763$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 1c | 37,157$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5f…abefbacked Yes | 5c | 27,901$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed Yes | 4c | 27,177$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 2c | 17,778$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.46 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 1c | 17,290$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 6c | 15,554$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.23 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…5d0abacked Yes | 15c | 14,241$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 13,325$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 4c | 10,502$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes | 2c | 10,445$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked Yes | 32c | 8,853$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 12c | 8,201$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.46 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…06edbacked Yes | 19c | 8,038$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…71d2backed Yes | 13c | 7,766$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…22bfbacked Yes | 12c | 7,561$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +406.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 74c | 7,224$5,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.45 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 26c | 7,217$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.58 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 25c | 7,137$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.39 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 19c | 6,809$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.92 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…7f58backed Yes | 12c | 6,680$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 6,643$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8d3bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…ecd1backed Yes | 25c | 6,150$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cc…709bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,964$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9ae8backed Yes | 15c | 5,785$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 78c | 5,555$4,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…9120backed Yes | 2c | 5,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…9c16backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,879$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 4,781$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.91 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae2…1032backed Yes | 20c | 4,754$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…96febacked Yes | 23c | 4,727$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +316.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 4,526$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.37 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…418ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,347$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 15c | 4,184$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.76 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 1c | 3,988$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +522.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…2e2dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,606$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…1555backed Yes | 30c | 3,573$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 29c | 3,500$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.37 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…ddbfbacked Yes | 20c | 3,414$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 21c | 3,377$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.01 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…48b9backed Yes | 15c | 3,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,100$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.01 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -82%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…145bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,970$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 13cpaid | +224%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…df3fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,935$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 2,926$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.37 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 1c | 2,662$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…ed26backed Yes | 5c | 2,641$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 2,638$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 1c | 2,559$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…4fdebacked Yes | 1c | 2,528$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,481$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…9868backed Yes | 1c | 2,470$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…ad86backed Yes | 16c | 2,248$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,180$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.22 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…3c7abacked Yes | 14c | 2,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,099$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 8c | 2,073$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…e840backed Yes | 20c | 1,996$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfb…152ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,889$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…75e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,869$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…e68cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,857$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…137bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,828$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2223…f7f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,807$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 1,773$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.94 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…afa4backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 29c | 1,710$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…f108backed Yes | 6c | 1,694$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…eb65backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 13c | 1,483$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 19c | 1,469$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.54 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 3c | 1,350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…a614backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…4d7fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…0363backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…9811backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…14dbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,152$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 1,152$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…c387backed Yes | 20c | 1,136$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5e…3b08backed Yes | 13c | 1,128$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 80c | 1,125$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…58b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,094$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 18c | 1,082$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…c4c0backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 14c | 1,052$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.