Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f5a047fbad390edaed349f8499f6f7ad8a80bd28db4f7d54a21d65df2cd122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $440,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 2c | 26,601$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 15,549$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 7c | 15,540$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…62ddbacked Yes | 2c | 15,345$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +820.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…475fbacked Yes | 3c | 14,746$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 1c | 13,213$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 2c | 12,455$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,299$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.86 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…4645backed Yes | 3c | 10,023$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 24cpaid | +392.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…3f82backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed Yes | 2c | 8,233$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 7,500$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf3…b1babacked Yes | 4c | 7,221$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…fe36backed Yes | 4c | 5,408$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed Yes | 2c | 5,031$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2902…a383backed Yes | 2c | 4,091$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 4c | 3,423$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…fe71backed Yes | 6c | 3,393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,259$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,251$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2974backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +1,808.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…c4c0backed Yes | 4c | 3,060$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked Yes | 2c | 3,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…09dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,966$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 4c | 2,954$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,843$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 4c | 2,749$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 6c | 2,646$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…04febacked Yes | 4c | 2,439$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…8f1abacked Yes | 4c | 2,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…b56cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,184$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,127$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 2,069$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…fb07backed Yes | 2c | 2,055$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…2982backed Yes | 4c | 2,020$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 1c | 1,876$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,850$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,799$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…d6eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,734$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…7e59backed Yes | 2c | 1,651$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…00a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,641$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…523fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,603$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,585$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 1,491$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…f4bfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,470$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,447$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,405$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…224cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,316$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +108%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…4a70backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…1fdabacked Yes | 4c | 1,237$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 9cpaid | +291.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2527backed Yes | 3c | 1,152$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…f469backed Yes | 3c | 1,114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…589cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 2c | 1,075$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…6ff8backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…1737backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…4485backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…a9c0backed Yes | 7c | 950$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +580.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 3c | 778.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 2c | 739.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ef…f4d4backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…4ce9backed Yes | 5c | 691.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 2c | 676.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7576backed Yes | 5c | 657.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a2…2719backed Yes | 5c | 656.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…a4dabacked Yes | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…9519backed Yes | 2c | 513.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…aea5backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -94%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…7199backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 3c | 496.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3962…b521backed Yes | 4c | 462.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9459…175ebacked Yes | 6c | 461.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d501backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…e144backed Yes | 6c | 442.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9b82backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 3c | 408.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.