Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbf2e69a4a100fc7ee75a3ef7e8197ad3b3f6f5f002c40603dbe9c8bf878bb4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 58c | 928.95$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.27 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 692.19$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e0…d131backed No | 49c | 646.49$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 587.78$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 392.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.73 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 386.84$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 356.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 71c | 242.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 60c | 239.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 222.91$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 14c | 217.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 10c | 214.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 12c | 205.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked Yes | 12c | 197.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 14c | 189.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 39c | 177.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 175.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 67c | 167.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 14c | 166.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 33c | 151.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 21c | 149.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 143.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 133.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 15c | 129.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 50c | 127.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 124.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 13c | 101.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 61c | 98.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 13c | 81.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 24c | 75.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 66.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 44c | 66.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 56c | 65.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 58.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 38c | 58.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 53.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 56c | 51.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…0c97backed Yes | 37c | 51.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 49.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea4…47dbbacked Yes | 80c | 48.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 59c | 38.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 41c | 36.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…96a0backed Yes | 66c | 36.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 71c | 34.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 73c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Yes | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5622…552ebacked Yes | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 60c | 30.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 68c | 28.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 62c | 28.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 28.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 71c | 26.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed No | 55c | 25.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 65c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 16.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 64c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.