Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134cf35dcb44bd661636c9bdb7fb5bd869b3e05bd7669f99ad4dad3f8b6db70a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 551.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 512.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 76c | 389.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 362.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 8c | 309.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 8c | 285.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 8c | 240.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 12c | 231.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 72c | 189.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 21c | 184.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 178.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 151.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 148.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 17c | 142.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 9c | 128.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 122.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 121.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 109.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 106.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 101.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 98.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 85.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 78.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 77.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 75.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 74.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 74.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 26c | 68.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 68c | 67.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4314…cabcbacked Yes | 31c | 59.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 59.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 50.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 50.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 48.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 24c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 68c | 47.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 43.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 39.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 31c | 37.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked No | 71c | 34.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 71c | 33.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed No | 76c | 32.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 28.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 75c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 22.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…e421backed No | 72c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 66c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 76c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 77c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.