Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6a0a1a3bf5e1782cfd466c2b54c1aba2e8c582feeb568cee62fd0aa7e3f10b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 0c | 4,880$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…f143backed Yes | 1c | 4,741$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 6c | 3,047$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 844.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 3c | 806.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 5c | 351.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…ee95backed Yes | 14c | 343.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…781dbacked Yes | 11c | 305.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad48…4514backed Yes | 7c | 207.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 20c | 199.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 7c | 198.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 6c | 175.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 165.31$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 26c | 152.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…6faebacked Yes | 13c | 143.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 26c | 140.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 38c | 139.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 17c | 132.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes | 10c | 117.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 100.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 16c | 77.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 73.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked Yes | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 59c | 48.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 37.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 59c | 36.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 66c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.