Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5761025fb4324bdd82316377572f44731884d89fa9b2935f478510cf32a40c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 581.96$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 29c | 414.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 384.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 355.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 334.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 59c | 324.73$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.93 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 244.12$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 33c | 210$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 26c | 190.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 30c | 156.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 154.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 20c | 140.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 124.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 123.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 120.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 107.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 107.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 103.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 72c | 100.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 33c | 100.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 99.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 29c | 93.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 36c | 91.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 22c | 88.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 46c | 82.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 81.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 80.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 36c | 77.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 21c | 76.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 74.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 72.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 69.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 53c | 67.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 67.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed No | 77c | 63.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 72c | 57.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 56.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 68c | 56.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 55.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 24c | 53.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 52.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 43c | 49.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked Yes | 34c | 48.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 72c | 48.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 47.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 28c | 45.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 40c | 44.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 32c | 43.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 43c | 43.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 41.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 59c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 73c | 38.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 45c | 37.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 79c | 36.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 29c | 35.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 73c | 35.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 35.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 30c | 33.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 61c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 68c | 31.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 71c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 41c | 30.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…d10abacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 70c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 79c | 27.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 69c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 68c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 62c | 23.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 54c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 22.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed No | 66c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…b462backed No | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…e421backed No | 75c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 57c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 71c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 15.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 71c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed No | 75c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.