Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8fbff438fabab1dafbf0a5aef76aae04ae155ebc5f59c030fea1d009b21680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 22c | 2,043$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.48 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 707.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 519.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 6c | 513.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 4c | 351.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 32c | 225.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 24c | 179.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 161.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 142.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 51c | 138.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 71c | 138.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed Yes | 67c | 131.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 72c | 118.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…e6a5backed Yes | 10c | 117.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 35c | 113$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 70c | 104.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 76c | 102.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 52c | 97.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 30c | 97.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 40c | 93.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 32c | 92.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 73.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 33c | 67.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 16c | 61.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 68c | 60.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 43c | 57.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 52.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 33c | 48.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 34c | 43.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 60c | 38.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 60c | 37.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed Yes | 63c | 35.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes | 72c | 33.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…cb90backed No | 33c | 33.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 68c | 26.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked No | 39c | 25.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 63c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.