Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x503a009492f6cca94b28ded72df224214256178d0beb0669671fa7bdd9116555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 26c | 2,462$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.74 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 18c | 850.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 7c | 577.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 462.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 455$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 28c | 407.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 399.13$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 57c | 351.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 75c | 347.22$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 58c | 224.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 7c | 210.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 71c | 209.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 205.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…d526backed No | 78c | 192.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 32c | 187.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 186.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 161.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 155.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 148$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 137.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 16c | 118$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…e6a5backed Yes | 21c | 117.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 117$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 106.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 22c | 103.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 97.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked No | 18c | 80.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 34c | 78.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…52a2backed Yes | 18c | 67.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 67.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 57c | 61.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 74c | 59.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 20c | 58.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 57.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 23c | 57.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 19c | 57.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 56.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 52c | 56.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked No | 22c | 55.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 30c | 49.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 49.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 38c | 46.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 66c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 32c | 39.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 34.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 55c | 20.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 76c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.