TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes73c4,473$3,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.3711855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes48c3,550$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.221035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ef…92b6backed Yes77c3,000$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No29c2,598$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.632330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes35c1,848$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes48c1,815$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.982445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes55c1,765$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.5811723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes47c1,601$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.77951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No50c1,158$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed Yes69c1,048$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,001$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.142003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes48c982.95$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.0836945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No39c877.39$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.455012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No44c867$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.138942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes52c779.99$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.171181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No27c767.83$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.987943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Yes70c716.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c693.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.292560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…92dabacked Yes46c686.58$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No45c679$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.876647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No49c678.95$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.672934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed Yes76c662.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.15100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No9c615.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.683946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No47c606.35$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.583647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3466…ea7abacked Yes74c536.65$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.531090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37527536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes57c500$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2131942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc112…c689backed Yes69c469.11$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No28c457.26$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.036145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0df…68d4backed Yes47c429.41$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes50c407.3$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4914339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No29c404.69$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.17948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No30c404.07$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.364157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No42c361.7$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.887538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa277…1182backed Yes58c345.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.562254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed Yes59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No58c337.94$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.694736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c334.05$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0747938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No48c331.59$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.56439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed Yes42c319.51$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.718853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes38c314.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.093630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No35c267.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No23c256.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.026448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes72c229.49$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.764158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Yes70c215.64$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes68c211.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.847146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4650…1063backed Yes55c210.2$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde3…c73bbacked Yes53c202.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.388741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1384271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d1…07cebacked Yes51c199.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…8729backed Yes57c197.52$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82db…2156backed Yes55c193.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c190.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.45848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x301b…374fbacked Yes56c185.11$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes74c173.91$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.782268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes34c170$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.974146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No24c160.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.955843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…9fcfbacked Yes64c157.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.321060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes71c155.72$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.843560%21 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No60c152.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.343834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e5…0059backed Yes57c150.72$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.841090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f62…8c64backed Yes72c138.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No45c136.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.144055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe226…a207backed Yes62c130.75$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes14c125.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.534415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No37c125$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.753050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34d0…264ebacked Yes65c117.43$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.672646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed Yes66c116.34$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.143762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No33c114$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb660…9250backed Yes58c104.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No36c103.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.465151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes65c102.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.341866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes64c101.45$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.242850%14 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa251…505fbacked Yes31c100.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes75c99.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No14c92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.043253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No35c91.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.965162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No24c80.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No14c80.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes50c78.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked No38c76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.889940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No31c73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.641450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No69c73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3716418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes48c72.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No30c71.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1522019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ab…e190backed No27c69.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes58c69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…2b9ebacked Yes54c68.17$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No31c64.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No43c62.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.572161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e21…f9bebacked Yes40c62.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…0ac6backed No63c60.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes64c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.351963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe479…4924backed Yes34c58.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+72.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes53c55.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.165341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4037…fa24backed Yes68c54.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.