AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576d7a61cc04a2962d70db3776b95c2b1cc26a88a1e87d99fde7c916358abf2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 4,473$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.37 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 48c | 3,550$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.2 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…92b6backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +55%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 29c | 2,598$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…b0a2backed Yes | 35c | 1,848$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 48c | 1,815$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 55c | 1,765$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.58 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 47c | 1,601$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.7 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 50c | 1,158$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 69c | 1,048$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.14 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 48c | 982.95$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.08 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 877.39$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.45 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 867$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.13 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 52c | 779.99$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 27c | 767.83$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc5…e3b9backed Yes | 70c | 716.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 693.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…92dabacked Yes | 46c | 686.58$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 45c | 679$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.87 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 49c | 678.95$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed Yes | 76c | 662.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 9c | 615.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 47c | 606.35$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ea7abacked Yes | 74c | 536.65$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 57c | 500$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…c689backed Yes | 69c | 469.11$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 457.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…68d4backed Yes | 47c | 429.41$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 50c | 407.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 29c | 404.69$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 30c | 404.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 361.7$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 58c | 345.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 337.94$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 334.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 331.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 42c | 319.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 38c | 314.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 35c | 267.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 23c | 256.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 72c | 229.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Yes | 70c | 215.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 211.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…1063backed Yes | 55c | 210.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…c73bbacked Yes | 53c | 202.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…07cebacked Yes | 51c | 199.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…8729backed Yes | 57c | 197.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…2156backed Yes | 55c | 193.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 190.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301b…374fbacked Yes | 56c | 185.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 74c | 173.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 34c | 170$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 160.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…9fcfbacked Yes | 64c | 157.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 71c | 155.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 152.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed Yes | 57c | 150.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…8c64backed Yes | 72c | 138.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 45c | 136.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…a207backed Yes | 62c | 130.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 14c | 125.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked Yes | 65c | 117.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 66c | 116.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 33c | 114$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…9250backed Yes | 58c | 104.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 36c | 103.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes | 65c | 102.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 64c | 101.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 31c | 100.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 35c | 91.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 24c | 80.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 14c | 80.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 50c | 78.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 31c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 48c | 72.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 30c | 71.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 27c | 69.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 58c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…2b9ebacked Yes | 54c | 68.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 43c | 62.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…f9bebacked Yes | 40c | 62.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed No | 63c | 60.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…4924backed Yes | 34c | 58.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 53c | 55.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…fa24backed Yes | 68c | 54.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?this page
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.