Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7f8a07cc712f4aabba724f3c4c9dfabf81d2a7b484df394a95fa2d626161f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 490.5$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 61c | 291.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 53c | 260.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 221.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 186.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked Yes | 54c | 186.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 43c | 169.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 166.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 43c | 161.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 158.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 154.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 152.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 141.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 36c | 114.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 54c | 112.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 111$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 110.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 46c | 108.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 105.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 23c | 103.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 100.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 65c | 100.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 31c | 99.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 95.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 43c | 86.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 77.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 75c | 71.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 34c | 67.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 68c | 64.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 41c | 61.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 59.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 56.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 51.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 45.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 44.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 42.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 25c | 41.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 56c | 39.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 48c | 39.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 47c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 71c | 35.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 34.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 33c | 33.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 45c | 28.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 28.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 75c | 25.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 63c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 68c | 16.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 64c | 15.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.