Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74fce7733b3f417b30bc023610aa30c4b1363a916ef3cda2e71cdef1c8e3f40d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 276.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 51c | 207.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 205.79$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 199.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 196.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 184.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 47c | 176.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 41c | 147.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 141.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 42c | 141.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 138.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 76c | 130.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 123.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 115.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 112.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 43c | 106.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 103.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 99.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 40c | 96.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 82.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 51c | 80.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 64c | 77.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 30c | 70.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 73c | 65.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 64.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 60.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 58.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 55.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 55.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 54.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 65c | 46.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 42.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 42.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 42c | 41.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 41.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 41.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 40.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 69c | 39.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 35c | 37.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 36.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 54c | 33.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 33.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 39c | 31.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 31.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 27.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 54c | 26.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 42c | 26.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 63c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…b84fbacked No | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 67c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 67c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 67c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 59c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…a163backed No | 66c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.