Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c5c725f53ca18400a8e57a8eb00fc6e79d1042465a46fef5f3f57158ea479e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 78c | 2,841$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.2 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 1,141$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 61c | 1,080$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.67 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 43c | 660.77$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.96 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 2c | 552.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 35c | 546.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 461.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 461.16$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 457.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 418.78$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.13 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 53c | 384.01$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 75c | 346.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 326$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 47c | 325.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 317.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 247$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 43c | 217.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…aeabbacked No | 62c | 211.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 203.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 201$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 45c | 190.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 44c | 183.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 45c | 159.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 42c | 143.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 54c | 136.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…4954backed Yes | 77c | 129.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 126.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 54c | 125.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 123.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 121.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 102.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 102.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 101.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 37c | 101$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 99.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 84.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 82.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 29c | 81.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…054fbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ad0dbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 72.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 50c | 70.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 79c | 68.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 61.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 61.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 60.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 44c | 60.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 60.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 21c | 59.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864b…c846backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 44c | 57.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 44c | 57.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 56.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 59c | 55.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 53.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 53.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 55c | 51.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…6408backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15be…186fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 40c | 49.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 44.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 48c | 44.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…4a1fbacked No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 42.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 42.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 38.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 79c | 38.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…95e2backed Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…ca37backed No | 66c | 37.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.