TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes78c2,841$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.231043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No35c1,141$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes61c1,080$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.6734624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes43c660.77$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.9689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1c…bd99backed No2c552.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.813743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No35c546.3$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5164021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No6c461.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c461.16$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes46c457.9$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.931943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes54c418.78$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No53c384.01$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.521,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes75c346.78$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.784,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c326$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes47c325.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.022650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No32c317.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.261,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c247$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes43c217.51$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5610640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a15…aeabbacked No62c211.1$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No18c203.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.553,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c201$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.963,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes45c190.29$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.261,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes44c183.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0711343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes45c159.07$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7517231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9124046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes36c149.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes42c143.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.391,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No54c136.89$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.721921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe576…4954backed Yes77c129.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c126.43$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No54c125.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.015158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No43c123.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.761,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes49c121.61$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2146743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c102.96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.695,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c102.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.143,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No52c101.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes37c101$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1417536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No53c99.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No44c99.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.062,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No62c84.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.061,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c82.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No29c81.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9152155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes55c81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4511038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…054fbacked Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.923,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529f…ad0dbacked Yes34c73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c72.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.682,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No50c70.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3582562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2579…ec02backed Yes79c68.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c61.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.991,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes34c61.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1537835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c60.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes44c60.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.765837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes53c60.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No53c59.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.953,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.451,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No21c59.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5720852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x864b…c846backed No66c59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.94450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes44c57.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes44c57.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.866330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No30c56.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes59c55.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.677949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No50c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6339159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes38c54.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No41c53.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.884,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No46c53.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.342,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes42c52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes55c51.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c50.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…6408backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15be…186fbacked No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No62c49.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3178663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes40c49.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6218033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd13c…5992backed No53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No36c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No58c44.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes48c44.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1251553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8f…4a1fbacked No66c44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0430%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c42.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes36c42.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.042,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes46c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4928649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.628456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.923241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c39.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes68c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked Yes38c38.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8424951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes37c38.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.162,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes79c38.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.044553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c8…95e2backed Yes69c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca2…ca37backed No66c37.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes35c37.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1410443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.