Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1699d1bf0dfbc4fabb226a2b0fe04e16aecd4773921bcf1c9e291e2b6ab9660e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,214$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 21c | 1,172$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.74 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 1,095$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,092$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.4 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 832$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 806.92$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 631.22$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 608.71$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 519.36$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 513.35$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 509.01$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 425.51$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 418.97$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 19c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 26c | 385.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 384.59$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 66c | 354.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 30c | 312.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 306.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 287$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 17c | 268.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 266.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 261.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 257.86$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 33c | 241.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 237.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 237.25$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 33c | 208$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 44c | 206.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 53c | 187.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 176.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 33c | 166.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 36c | 158.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 155.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 152.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 23c | 148.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 24c | 136.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 135.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 45c | 131.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 130.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 46c | 128.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 128.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 127.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 120.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 55c | 118.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 113.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 110.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 106.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 99.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…98e5backed Yes | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 93.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 28c | 92.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 30c | 90.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 88.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 87.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 82.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 76.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 72.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 20c | 70.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 69.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 50c | 68.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 66.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 62.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 34c | 61.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 60.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 48c | 60.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 58.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 69c | 58.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 58.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…02eebacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 56.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 53.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…b15fbacked No | 46c | 49.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.